JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/31/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:19

That doesn't mean ZiPS is PERFECT, beacuse you can always improve a model

12:20

One thing I'm very happy about is there no year-to-year correlation for individual teams on miss.

12:21

And if you just look at individual teams, that still holds true (though 17 is a little light for pearson)

I think the Mariners had the highest year-to-year in miss correlation and the r^2 there was like 0.04

RUKIDDING

12:21

Saw Burnes had 17 starts on 5 days rest and 9 on 6 days...was that a luxury for Milwaukee or will most teams have 1 or 2 guys they will try to use similarly going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I think teams were extra careful last year coming off a shortened season!

Especially when they have the luxury of depth

FLOP

12:22

Nightengale is reporting that Preller is dangling his "pitching depth" (Weathers and/or Paddack) in trade talks. Am I crazy or is the team that resorted to signing Jake Arrieta last year still not very deep? How much stock can you put in a guy returning from TJ and 9 good innings of spring ball from Mackenzie Gore?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

They added Nick Martinez too and he's really interesting given his improvements in Japan (including a better fastball(

No, the padres don't ahve perfect depth because nobody does

12:24

But the question is: is the pitching depth such that you can't trade any for a player at positions with considerably *less* depth?

So yeah, you'd prefer not seeing a pitcher traded. But if it gets you a replacement at 1B/LF/RF, can you really justify hanging onto, say, your 8th best starter?

The Stranger

12:24

When will ZiPS be updated for players on new teams?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I sent David an update at 2 AM last night! He's got a ton on his plate to take care of, so I don't know exactly when it will be in the system

Jon

12:25

How long does it take for comments on articles to be approved? And why is there wait?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

It depends. Comments with link have to be approved generally.

12:26

And some changes were made so that a person's first ever comment had to pass through moderation. We've had a lot of increase in spam

There was a problem a couple weeks ago in which everyone was going through moderation

We also have a handful of bad actors who just aren't allowed to comment.

Kyle

12:26

Do you think the league will ever take any hard action against teams tanking for pure profit like the Reds did this offseason? I feel like they've made it pretty clear that they don't care unless it affects the value of the team, like when McCourt broke the Dodgers into multiple companies to take out loans against each of them. Even then they only stepped in because his divorce threatened to split up those companies.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

No.

12:27

Without the divorce, McCourt might still own the team

Rick Dugo

12:27

Do you think projected standings fail to account for a manager's impact? (if there is one) Specifically in tightly-projected divisions like the AL and NL easts, is there a world in which the difference between say, Cora and Boone, or Snit and somebody else makes up a projected-WAR gap?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

They do, but it's very tricky. Evaluating a manager is a very difficult thing to do because data for it generally sucks.

Bighen

12:29

im assuming there are rules that prohibit this but could Mets, another team and conforto do a sign and trade to reduce or eliminate the QO penalty I assume he’s struggling with? The LF list alone shows how much teams could use him. He’s better than 90% of that list if not the entire list. Even coming off a down season. That seems ridiculous but that list is oof.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It sucks for Conforto, but MLB is quite strict about shenanigans here

12:31

There are rules again QO "understandings" and the commish has wide authority to punish teams playing games

Schwejk

12:31

What's more likely: Marlins boom or bust?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Possibly a boom if they can get enough offense somehow

12:33

I really like their rotation's potential

Larry

12:33

With all the Rookies appearing to be making the opening day rosters, who does this change the super two date?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'm not going to venture a guess until we can actually estimate

Kyle

12:33

Have the Yankees officially turned a corner on their budget? It feels like after the Braves snagged Olsen they had no plan B to improve the offense, even with a lot of good free agents available.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I honestly don't know where the Yankees thinking stands right now

B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks

12:33

Zimbobski! It's back! Draft day is Saturday. The sun is in the sky. Mike Trout is healthy! And I should really skip pitchers for the first two rounds of my shallow H2H points league, right? right?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I try to unless there are some crazy good values

Moog Powell

12:34

I've heard it said that while defensive metrics are improving, they are still imperfect. What do you think are the biggest inefficiencies with guys like OOA, UZR and DRS?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I don't think there's any SPECIFIC inefficiency, it's just that the basic challenge is so hard

12:35

The basic problem is that you're not counting events, but events something someone PREVENTED from happening.

Leland

12:35

Sure I could just check the ZiPS but...are you personally high or low on Jarred Kelenic this season?

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