JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/31/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

I'm personally higher than ZiPS

SEA

12:35

over/under Julio Rodriguez HR 9.5 for 2022 ?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I'll take over. I think he's making it really hard for them to keep him down long

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:36

I know in the past you've mentioned you've gotten some not so nice comps, like Shrek or Herman Goering. I know who I would be calling when they cast the lead of the inevitable Ridley Scott directed ZiPs biopic: Michael Chernus

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It's not a bad choice!

12:37

It's not one I thought of. It might be the closest one yet

Kyle

12:37

I'm pickling vegetables later for a camping trip. Red onion, cucumber, and jalepenos are guaranteed. Should I try celery just for the hell of it?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I guess you could. But why? It's not such a great veggie!

Pickle some eggs!

Want some out of the box things that are really good to pickle?

Cherries

radishes

make some kimchee!

Guest

12:39

What age do sports writers peak?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

50 I hope

Cynthia

12:39

Is a positional adjustment and valuing offensive runs above average better than no positional adjustment and valuing offense runs above the position's average? Doesn't the latter provide a more fluid adjustment that would be more accurate season-to-season rather than a static adjustment that can become less accurate over time?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I'm not QUITE following - if I'm reading correctly (and I may not be, I didn't get much sleep and i've got a headache), it's mostly an accounting difference that you can deal with in either scenario

Oh, you mean have a more dynamic positional adjustment?

We've actually had discussions about going toward that approach

SEA

12:40

who hits more HR this year, Kelenic or Julio ?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Probably Kelenic

A 24 year old

12:41

Your comment about 24 year olds being at their peak is troubling

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Hey, I'm going to be *44* in June!

I'm still trying to figure out HTF that happened.

Cameron and I were once the young guys in the sabermetric community

Guest

12:41

Do you have special post-Coors effects built into ZIPS for ex-Rockies?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

No. The Coors Hangover is real, but it's SMALL and real.

Guest

12:42

"The ZiPS DC projeciton is all messed up" Is that the techinal term?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

And some of it is people being over-obsessed with a player's individual home/road splits rather than the overall seasonal line adjusted for park effects.

Cody F. Schmidt

12:42

What would you put on a FanGraphs city connect jersey?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

we're officially a northern virginia company!

B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks

12:43

So wait, is Zips DC messed up for all players?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Nope, just Suzuki

Shave those damn sideburns!

12:44

You can’t always improve a model. Kate Upton is already an 11.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

There's 12

and 13.

Now, if she was a 24, 24 is the highest number.

Jeff in Jersey

12:45

Hi Dan. Thanks for the great work & for managing to always include something funny. I'm wondering whether--in addition to in-season player acquisitions--ZIPS more commonly misfires with very old or very young teams. There's been a lot of talk that the Yankees' age makes their projections shaky; same with a young team like the Royals or Tigers, with a bunch of players who could pop. Any truth to this? That young or old teams are more likely to skew projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I wish this kind of calibration was a problem! It provides an avenue for improvement.

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