JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Matt

12:12

Which GM is on the hottest seat right now? How many GMs will be freed up to enjoy other employment opportunities this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Preller, I think. I can't imagine he outlasts ANOTHER manager

PirateFan

12:13

Who would you rather play everyday, Triolo or Peguero

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Triolo's better, but Peguero could mean more ot the team long term, so you'd have to go with the latter unless they're in surprise contention

Idiotic Failson

12:15

Will Steve Garvey (assuming he wins) have the highest career WAR of anyone ever elected to US state or federal office?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

No, Bunning

Garvey would be second, I believe

then I think Vinegar Bend Mizell?

12:16

Walter Johnson would have been top but he lost his congressional election

I'm not sure about state offices, honestly

Tyler Duffy

12:16

Melanoma is no joke. Get those new freckles checked!

Dan Szymborski

12:16

It can be very serious!

Kevin

12:16

What are the biggest few things you understand about baseball that you did not understand 5 or 10 years ago?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Pitch framing. Tunneling. How good bunts are if there's a decent chance you can get a hit

Guest

12:18

Why is ZiPS so much lower on Mike Trout than everyone else?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

A little confused by the question: ZiPS with DC playing time has him with the *better* WAR than Steamer.

12:19

and the reason straight-up ZiPS has him lower is obvious: it projects 89 games instead of the depth chart 146

Given how he hasn't started that many games since 2016, I'm on ZiPS for this one

12:20

On Casas, ZiPS would suggest $64 million if you bought out two years of FA for Casas.

Dave Shutton

12:20

Who are you? Where are you going?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Do your own homework Shutton

Guest

12:22

With all the new stats you guys seem to be adding, are there any plans to add ZIPS percentile projections to player pages?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Probably not this year, but we ought to have the splits ready soon

Champdo

12:23

Of Reese Olson, Matt Manning, Gibson-long, and Jobe who do you think has the best career?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Manning's probably the safest, but Jobe has a better chance of hitting the high WAR numbers than him

Krusty

12:23

Totally hypothetical question: let's say a club decided to select and develop its starting pitchers for endurance and durability -- they want to create a new crop of Workhorses.

A series of interrelated questions: do you think it *could* be done in the modern game? Would it just be the old process of picking Big Strong Guys and then seeing which arms survive getting slagged? Would it work? Would any of those pitchers be any good?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I think you can, but it would be a lot like the old days

And I dont' think it's beneficial

Especially with FA

12:24

you don't want to break the five guys whose arms can throw 150 innings comfortable to find the one dude who can throw 250 innings a year

and then that dude signs with the Yankees in three years for $350 million.

12:25

And I don't think teams have figured out at all who can throw a ton of innings without going splat eventually

GoBirds

12:26

Everyone always asks about when ZiPS correctly predicts a breakout, but what about when ZiPS predicts someone going off a cliff? Got any examples?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I'd have to crunch some numbers, but I don't quote those as often because they make me far sadder

like ZiPS projected Miguel Cabrera to age terribly, but it doesn't make me happy

Idiotic Failson

12:26

Re: disreputable looking pit beef places - this is also the best way to choose a burrito place in Southern California. If it looks like the restaurant from Goonies, it's probably the best food you've ever had.

Steve O

12:26

Should the Red Sox wait on a Casas extension? I mean bad body 1B who are bad at defense aren't exactly a hot commodity and they're going to have him through his age 28 season anyways. He's going to have to have like a 140-150 wRC+ to be more than a 2 win guy since he gives you nothing on defense or baserunning.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Waiting isn't necessary if the price reflects the risk

romorr

12:27

The Athletic put out an extension prediction for Adley at, 8 years, $156 million. Have to think if that was on the table, the Orioles would love that. Just feels light to me.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's probably on the light side, but not quite as much as one may think; catchers are weird and can break down physically surprisingly early

Connecting…