JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/24

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Syndey Opera House

12:27

What did I do to tick off John Fisher? Come on, man, that thing looks nothing like me. And as a baseball facility, well a green ceiling twelve feet above the field is just not serious. This is a lame Metrodome tribute, not an homage to a true celebration of music.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

You probably lived a happy life

12:28

Je Suis La Pomme

12:29

With the departure of Jung Hoo Lee, which three current KBO players would project to have the highest career WAR in the MLB?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I don't really have that available as I don't project them all

Witt

12:29

KC Royals will make playoffs again in ____?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

spite of their determination not to

laughing

1

J

12:30

unnecessary text formatting

I forgot to put a name last time

12:30

Maybe that's the question... what's the DC playing time thing?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

it's the depth chart playing time

which is on the depth charts!

olethros

12:30

Dan, has anyone at FG considered revisiting this topic? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-standard-and-its-biggest...

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'm sure Jay has written related things. And if he hasn't, you can always bug him about it (nicely) as long as you don't rat me out!

Matt

12:31

About how many games do you go to a year?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I normally go 40, but I've gone to fewer last couple of years due to a couple back procedures

12:32

I have sciatica with like three contributing reasons

Kevin

12:32

You mention pitch framing as something you better understand now than in the past. Some years ago Catcher ERA was a thing but was dismissed as meaningless by many. Do you think there might have been something to Catcher ERA tied to what we now understand as pitch framing?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Yeah, but it was too noisy a stat to really get anything out of

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:33

How big a loss, ZiPSically speaking, is Lucas Giolito to the Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Significant. Even if one didn't like him, he had at least SOME upside

Alex

12:33

Can you help me feel optimistic as a Padres fan?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

You probably won't have a worse presidential election in the rest of your life after this year

laughing

2

Talfred

12:33

Does ZiPS include park factors? If so, does it use them by handedness, or just the overall park factor?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Naturally, and it depends

12:34

(For projecting the stats, yes, but not necessarily WAR since everyone plays in the same park)

and that's the handedness part

you're not dreaming

12:34

I know low sample defensive metrics are like reading tea leaves, but ZiPS seems oddly pessimistic on Evan Carter's defense given that he's gotten great scouting reports there and has been good so far in the majors. Any thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

The total zone-esque method I use with ball coordinates in the minors is decidedly meh on him

Nick

12:35

Hey Dan, looking to understand the 56 wRC+ projection for Austin Hedges this season. 56 is obviously terrible, but it's also higher than anything Hedges has done since 2018, including last year, when he posted a 24 wRC+ in 200ish PAs. Do projection systems just have a weird time handling players at the extremes like this (ie, he can't really be THIS bad), or you think it's reasonable to expect he'll be better than he has been in recent seasons this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Based on history, that's kinda how it works though. It's the opposite of a star distro chart; it's all upside

Because he's reading about the limits of how lousy a hitter can be

12:36

Without, say, dragooning a FanGraphs employee into your lineup

Steve O

12:36

Who's playing 3B and CF for the Yankees at the end of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I would imagine two different guys

J

12:36

Rutschman is going to hit 30 before his first free agent year. For a catcher, I cannot imagine him being offered much more than that in an extension. There is just too much risk in him being moved to 1B at that point, where his career hitting marks make him more an average regular than a star.

Tyler

12:36

Do you know of any research that's been done on whether plate discipline is something that can be developed? I feel like I've seen conflicting opinions on this without much data being presented. I could be wrong though.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I think so to a degree, though there's a lot of mixed results

GoBirds

12:37

Does ZiPS find player height to be a useful predictor for anything?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

It has not

GoBirds

12:37

I'm guessing Jorge Mateo isn't a good plan in CF. Does that mean Cowser has to make the team so they have a backup for Mullins?

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