JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:48

Galileo, Mercutio, and Justinian all tied at one kill

a chipmunk once got in, but I caught the chipmunk in a box before the cats got it

Insert Witty Name Here

12:48

A political reference in your chat? You feeling okay?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Ah, but it was a political reference when I didn't say who I liked over who!

Greg

12:49

Oh Danny ZiPS, the out-li-ers are calling...

Grading youths

12:49

Who ends with the better WAR: Frelick or Colt Keith?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I think Keith

Steven

12:50

Just like last year, FG projected batter WAR is 690 (22 per team) and pitcher WAR is 458 (15 per team) when (perhaps definitionally?) batter WAR was 570 to 430. Why is this? Is it a DC thing? Does ZIPs have this same gap.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I haven't had that issue with the ZiPS WAR projections

Seltz

12:50

why do you think the GOATED instrument, the harpsichord, fell out of favor after the Baroque era?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

dynamic range

Before the harpsichord and clavichord died out, pianos were in development for decades

12:52

harpsichords only really coudl get so loud

12:53

while I generally like historical instruments in baroque works

I do prefer pianos to harpsichords

Nick

12:53

Cat status report?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

All asleep at last check

Sammy So-so

12:53

You mentioned in the NYY projections that they had long-term problems to face in the near future. Could you briefly expand on this?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

it's a pretty aging core relying on very few players and the one guy who isn't old isn't signed

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:54

Hey Danny, let's cut the playoff teams back to 4 or fewer. Then we see series between the best teams, and no Dbacks-Rangers World Series.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Nobody has had the wisdom/stupidity to appoint me MLB Dictator

12:55

and if I had a mercenary army, pressing the dubious Szymborski claim to the UK throne is more amusing

big auction on Saturday

12:55

Anyone's projections change dramatically since the last update? How often are these various projections systems updated here on fan graphs?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

They don't usually change much until the season starts

12:56

There's a *small* gain from including spring training stats, but I'm not sure the small gain is worth everyone suddenly having new projections

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:56

Bello extension is 6/55

Reds Enjoyer

12:57

Which of the Diaz closer brothers has the better year this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

"mercy for the diaz brothers"

12:58

Edwin's gotta be the fave even coming off serious injury

since he's just so good if he's OK

Guest

12:58

Hi Dan! Any advice for a 30 year old Mexican Psychiatrist who wants to commit his free time self learning sabermetrics and dreams about retiring in 20 years and use this developed skills (by then hopefully) to work in anything baseball related?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Coding for sure!

Know your python, R, etc.

KC Pain

12:59

Why do some projections/analysis fall off so quickly? A guy has great power, then the next he has meh. I understand eval is hard, but Soderstorm for example had his hit tool as his calling card and now he doesnt. There was some....I think Heriberto Hernandez ??? Astros C prospect who had great power they said and then everyone said nawww a year later it felt like. I guess it is odd whether rightly or wrongly how either a player doesnt get a pass for a down year or just how quickly their calling card was completely wrong and tossed out.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

For the same reason a hurricane's path can change significantly

from a little shift

You only have so many years were improvement is likely

Dylan Stein

12:59

If Catfish Hunter were to play in todays MLB would he win multiple Cy Youngs

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Maybe, though he'd have a harder time making the Hall with today's voters

Hyperthetical