JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

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laughingstock

12:11

has ZIPS changed it's mind meaningfully on any players based on their small sample performance so far this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

By a huge amount? not really

I'll probably do a late april/early may piece on that if people are interested

12:12

Is an April Changed ZiPS Review worth your time in a couple weeks?

Yes (63.4% | 78 votes)

No (6.5% | 8 votes)

Only if there's Markakis content (21.1% | 26 votes)

What's ZiPS (3.3% | 4 votes)

DAN I HAVE A FANTASY QUESTION (5.7% | 7 votes)

Total Votes: 123

San Dzymborski

12:12

What team has your opinion on changed the most in the first dozen games of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I dunno, Red Sox?

I mean, my opinions haven't changed much

because, you know

April

Oaktown Blues

12:13

Let's say a guy you currently consider a low variance, 100 wRC+ type suddenly starts hitting home runs in every single PA. How many consecutive HRs would he have to hit before you think he's likely the best hitter in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I feel like this is an answer that shouldn't be off the cuff but I can't just run something to experiment right now

I dunno, 8?

didace

12:13

I had to laugh at your article on if a AAA team was better than <insert favorite bad team>. It reminded me of all the times some sports announcer would declare "Alabama could win the NFC South". While most of the time it is just hyperbole, many times they actually think this. It shouldn't take a statistical analysis to declare "No, no they wouldn't".

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Yeah, I think that when it happens, it's exceedingly rare

Though I don't think the difference is as large as college to NFL

People will note that teams win fewer than 56 games at times

but MLB teams aren't PROJECTED to win fewer than 56 games