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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/16/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:21

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlbs-competitive-balance-tax-is-anything-b...

Jeffrey Springs

12:22

Are you or ZIPS buying Springs start to the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Not really. I mean I like him fine, but he also hasn't allowed any homers. Now, he's pitching in a way that his HR/9 should be improved, but a few homers really brings that FIP down to earth

Bing bong

12:22

generic McGonigle ZiPS question

Dan Szymborski

12:23

standard baseball analyst sarcastic rejoinder

Julius

12:23

Any reason to worry about how Konner Griffin is adjusting to MLB competition? Lot's of Ks, limited contact (~68 contact %), defense is not grading well (in a small sample)

Dan Szymborski

12:23

mildly concerned. Nothing long-term, but he does nee dto shore things up

jbk

12:23

The Mets are not winning another game this season. Prove me wrong.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Here's the thing: Mets tragedies are fueled by Mets triumphs. The Mets didn't have enough triumphs since the end of the 2025 season to justify the 2026 tragedy.

12:25

So I expect htey'll turn it around, get a three game lead in the NL East, and then the clubhouse gets Legionnaire's disease at the trade deadline

Oaktown Blues

12:25

Think Jeffrey Springs is back in mid-rotation form now, a couple years out from TJS? Fastball velo is back to 2022/2023 levels

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Now, if you're talking mid-rotation form, I believe in THAT

Scott

12:25

Wyatt Langford, what happened?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

10-8!

12:26

To clarify, I buy ZiPS ROS projection for the Cardinals, 10-8 start is fun, but doesn't mean much. But, out of curiosity for how ZiPS reacts to changes, what type of May would it take for a Cards-like team to have a .500+ ROS projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I'm not sure I can gauge that super quickly!

You'd need it to be sustainable improvements

They have at least one - Walker's done enough to have a big effect on his ZiPS

enough real things

GBS42

12:27

Going back to a chat from probably 2-3 years ago, I went to Zip's Cafe in the Mt. Lookout area of Cincinnati and tried their burger. To each their own, of course - and they're celebrating their 100th anniversary, so good for them - but I'd call it a 2.5-WAR burger, just a bit above average.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's hard to have a notable burger

Because the basic burger paradigm isn't hard to execute, and so many people make burgers!

12:28

An average burger is really darn good, and you can get an average burger dozens of places in five minutes of driving through a commercially zoned area

drplantwrench

12:28

i have zero expectations of the angels maintaining literally anything at this point, so they decide to prove me wrong and play decent ~.500 baseball. will they continue to be mid out of spite, or will things fall apart?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I'm skeptical of Angels

Oaktown Blues

12:28

Nick Kurtz with a 59.6% contact rate so far this year...please say April

Dan Szymborski

12:28

April...but be a bit concerned

Naylor Sailor

12:29

In your will, which cat is the lead beneficiary for ZiPS, or are they all at equal percentages?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

My executor does have instructions and funding for their care should my mom and sister predecease me

ZiPS I still have to figure out

12:31

David's email is in my will and my executor has instructions that he has authority to work with David to figure out something fair for my estate and any possible charitable donations

Which I should probably mention to David at some point

David sometimes takes care of negotiations for me that put me in an awkward spot

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:32

If it's really clobberin' time, whose hulked-out starts do you believe in most?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Walker, though I've been burned before!

and as you might see if you read th earticle, Ben Rice

Guest

12:33

How does Slade Cecconi project as a full-time reliever? Not a early-season knee-jerk reaction, but he clearly has had problems post-1TTO throughout his career in the majors, and at some point they have to pull the trigger on moving him to the pen, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

ZiPS projects a 3.65 ERA for him this year as a reliever

Mickey

12:33

How bad are the situations the Mets and the Phillies find themselves in? Which is more likely to turn things around?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I'm not actually worried about either going forward, though there's a risk that they dig too deep a hole to get themselves out of

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