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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/16/26

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Rico

12:34

Most impactful baseball books you’ve read?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

The Abstracts starting when I was 7 since it kinda guided me long term

drplantwrench

12:34

maybe the lesson is that the white sox should get murakami on the mound stat. dudes BABIP suggests hes gonna be obliterating seagulls soon

12:35

Is Jesus Luzardo doomed to underperform his peripherals for always and eternity?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I wouldn't say that yet, though you do expect even a FIP neutral guy to have an ERA a little higher than their FIP with the Phillies

Oaktown Blues

12:36

Scott Barlow's velo has been down from his 2020-2021 peak for a while, but this year it plummeted another 3 MPH from last year, now at 89.2. He hasn't been too bad so far but do you think this will spell the end of his effectiveness?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Sudden mph deltas are really dangerous

Mr. Redlegs

12:36

Sal Stewart has been awesome and can't stop hitting home runs. But he literally can't pull the ball at all. I don't think I've ever seen his version of production before. How much of a problem is that for the future?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It might cap his HR total a bit, but I'm nto really worried overall

Aaron

12:36

With Bryce Miller coming back from the IL, Emerson Hancock seemingly breaking out, and Kade Anderson looking great in AA, predict the Mariners starting rotation on August 4th.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I predict it will consist of five pitchers!

Naylor Sailor

12:37

The Mariners are the best team in the AL (by BaseRuns). Hang the banner!

Dan Szymborski

12:37

There's a rich history of premature banners

drplantwrench

12:37

zach neto continues to be an enigma defensively. hes second in the majors in DRS for SS, but middle of the group in OAA. i assume its cuz the eye test like him more than models, but how do you square that circle?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

OAA tends to be more predictive than DRS

12:38

I think DRS does have some value though because defense is weird

Mike Trout Mask Replica

12:38

Dan! Thanks for the chat. Dating back to last year, it seems like Javy Baez has performed better when playing CF than his various other positions. Is there any data supporting this, or is it just vibes?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

He has hit better at CF, but not by a huge amount, and not a large sample really

12:38

Does ZiPS care if in-season performance is linear or eratic month to month?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

There's too much noise in that

12:39

If someone has massaged something actually predictive out of that, well, that someone's not me

12:40

I know small sample size yada yada, but what do you make of Torkelson's start? Insane BB% gains, but is it costing him power?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I wouldn't read too much into it. Though he's been really passive at the plate, and there's a danger in that

I call that Ben Grieve syndrome

just like there's a Luis Arraez death spiral, where you have to remember that contact is a means to an end, not the end

plate discipline, similarly, is also a means to an end, not the end itself

12:41

I'm sad, Dan

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I am sorry

Mason

12:41

My man Dan. Hope you are doing well. I am, of note, a biased Cardinals fan. However, Jordan Walker's start is awesome for everyone to watch. Do you have an adjusted projections/gut feelings for how this will work out over the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

He's not going to stay a star, but I think there's a good chance that we're getting that power breakout at least

Sal's Mom

12:41

Elly looking better in basically every aspect so far this season. Is this gonna be his superstar 8 war season?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

It's very possible

he was playing through some nagging injuries last year

12:41

Langford or Wilyer Abreu this year and next year?