JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

Most stats that are league scaled have been MLB scaled for some time

Key Flaw

12:15

How extreme of a week must a player have to radically alter ZiPS? Did Colton Cowser's week last week change any projections? It certainly changed the way the fans and management view him.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Heh, that's a difficult question to answer specifically

It depends on just how large the difference is and *how* the difference was made

A BABIP change? ZiPS might not even blink. A low-homer guy going on a homer tear? Different story

12:17

ZiPS has already moved ROS up nine points of wRC+ for Cowser, from 101 to 110

the guy who says it's april

12:17

it's april

Dan Szymborski

12:17

BUT IM THE GUY WHO SAYS ITS APRIL

Okra

12:18

Pirates pulled Jared Jones after 5 IP 1H 0BB 7K and only 59 pitches in his last start. They were only up 1-0 and went on to lose 1-3. He threw 126 innings last year and likely go ~160 this year. Way too early for these shenanigans, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I probably would not have done that

Gary

12:19

With all of the dunking on the Red Sox for choosing Trevor Story over Xander Bogaerts, is it fair to consider that the Bogaerts might end up somehow being a worse deal. He still has almost 10 years left on his $280 million contract, and while not frankly washed, is starting to look like only a solid regular at best.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I was fairly optimistic about the Story signing, analysis which definitely has not worked out so far

It was a LOT of years for Bogaerts

Zips user

12:19

What is your view of positional adjustment scaling now? It seems too dramatic to me now. It used to be that if you had a guy who could hit a ton you'd put him at 1B but 1B offensive results really don't seem to reflect that to me. There's a lot of bad hitting 1B over a number of years

Dan Szymborski

12:20

We're likely making some changes next year, but DH is likely to be easily the biggest shift

the others probably not moving more than a few runs one way or the others

Insert Witty Name Here

12:20

Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, it’s why I chat with Dan on company time!

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Ask a job-related question then it counts as working I think

Oddball Herrera

12:21

Have we all been bamboozled by KeBryan Hayes again? I feel like he has some sort of record for "number of years running in which his breakout is 'imminent'"

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I love his defense, but I'm not sold on the offense ever really breaking out

Key Flaw

12:21

If babip doesn't really vary with pitchers too much, is that because the ones that get hit hard have mostly been filtered out? Does it change for college or high school or low minors players?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It seems like more of an ability in low minors

I haven't checked for college, but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't show up as a relatively strong ability there

and sure as sugar for high school

Jonathan Liskov

12:21

Gunnar Henderson & Heston Kjerstad or Anthony Volpe & Spencer Jones for the next 10 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

The former

Pat G

12:21

Baseball taketh a Strider, Baseball giveth a Strider (Jones)?

Key Flaw

12:22

You can only have meat from one animal for the rest of your life. Chicken seems obvious to me, but pig has sausage, bacon, ham, pork chops.....

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I keep dairy, right?

For me, it probably is chicken

12:23

I mean, I love pork products, but I don't eat them constantly. I haven't had bacon since December.

I'm already a fat guy, so I can't eat like an asshole if I want to keep my non-weight measurables decent

kmad

12:26

All-time bottom 5 Team wRC+

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Are you asking me?

Probably a bunch of teams like the 1878 Monongahela Maroons or other teams I may or may not have made up

Guest

12:28

Jose Altuve the voluptuous female elf rogue?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I guess so

Biscuit

12:29

I know there misses in every draft, but man Andrew Vaughn devolving into a low-OBP, below-average power hitter is really a surprising turn of events. Career negative WAR.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I still wonder what may have happened with a less weird development pattern

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