JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:30

The poor guy debuted in the majors in 2021 after a year off and before that, hadn't even really mastered high-A ball

12:31

You don't often see first basemen barely slugging .400 in the Sally League sent nearly straight to the majors

Leo Feingold

12:31

What causes discrepancies between different projection systems? For example Tristan McKenzie, has wildly different ZiPS and Steamer projections. Is there a certain player archetype that is inherently harder to project even with adequate data?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I've never found an obvious pattern

And it's a difficult question to answer; I can say why ZiPS likes something, but I don't have access to other systems

Key Flaw

12:31

Have you played Baldur's Gate 3? I played all the old Infinity Engine games, and BG3 just seems like it is a Gen-Z targeted edgelord-loving dating simulation based on D:OS. Should I eventually get it, or does my ambivelent reaction to Larian games mean I won't like it?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I haven't played yet, it's on my to do list

12:33

I'm not sure I'd qualify as an edgelord as a youngster. Maybe an edgebaron?

12:34

I just had too many games to play and at this point, I probably won't get around to it until Eiyuden Chronicle next week and by then, Trails Through Daybreak will be close enough that I won't start another sprawling RPG at that point, especially with Final Fantasy XIV expansion coming out

romorr

12:35

Jordan Westburg is crushing baseballs, Colton Cowser is crushing baseballs, Gunnar Henderson is him, but all I hear about is some 20 year old struggling. Can you write about that trio for me some day?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I mean, they're really awesome

Not sure I have a specific article in mind that would be interesting

Zips user

12:35

Have you ever used your model to predict injury based on recent performance?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I've toyed around with neural networks trying to predict injury and despite a lot of time put into it, I have absolutely zero to show for it

Pitcher usage

12:36

Will 6 man rotations become the norm or is mlb focused on keeping roster spots low vs pitchers healthier?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I'm not sure they'll become the norm

but I wouldn't be surprised on seeing long relievers make a comeback

Nervous in STL

12:36

This Cardinals offense can’t be this bad, can it? Goldschmidt showing signs of the cliff in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I'm worried about him. Was thinking about writing about him next week at some point

Joe Shlabotnik

12:37

Is the 1971 article "Baseball Magic" by anthropologist (and former minor leaguer!) George Gmelch common knowledge among Fangraph-writer-types? If not, I hugely recommend it, as I think about it all the time in baseball and non-baseball contexts. Best when paired with the film "Trobriand Cricket."

(TL;DR: baseball's many superstitions tend to accumulate around the parts of the game that can't be controlled by skill alone.)

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I'm not actually familiar with it

BUt others may be

Matt

12:37

What is your sense of Matt Manning? Had such a high FV and...couldn't crack the rotation this year. Do you have hope here?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Meh. I had him on my busts list too

MLB Fan

12:39

did you find it refreshing how KC’s owner admitted he was told to try and squeeze money out of local politicians? watching Fischer leave Oakland makes me feel pretty gross inside

Dan Szymborski

12:39

If your'e gonna grift, be honest about it!

My favorite thing was how Brett made an argument AGAINST the stadium without realizing it

saying how when he retired the Rangers opened up a new stadium and they've already replaced it

12:41

(The taxpayers were still paying for the last stadium)

Guest

12:41

Hi! first timer here. Got a question, can't seem to find the answer. In last night's win for the Yankees, Volpe made a diving grab up the middle and then ripped a throw to first that seemed like a much harder than usual throw. He's been rated with a suspect/average arm at Short, usually avg arm speed around 81. I'd love to know the velo on that throw if possible

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Statcast has the data, but I don't think it's shared in that detail that you can look up the throw velocity of a play

but maybe I'm wrong

Biscuit

12:42

Baty's savant sliders are very "chilly" looking....very little power to start the year. You selling while that BA is still bright and shiny?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I'm not sure they're in a position to sell high or even sell mid

Nate

12:42

Raise your hand if a month ago you thought Trevor Rogers would be Miami's most valuable pitcher so far

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Not me

12:43

Though I'll defend my ROY pick of him until myd eath

M’s Fan

12:43

White no longer in Tacoma.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I totally forgot he wasn't there anymore

12:44

Though I apparently knew it at SOME point

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