JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/24

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Scott

12:55

Thanks for these chats Dan! Do you think the Dodgers will give Gavin Lux a longer leash because of the injury rust? If not, who gets the next every dayish opportunity? Is Miguel Vargas an option or are they looking at him exclusively as an OF now even with Pages ahead in the pecking order?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I think they're just not overflowing with great options

12:56

I think if they were willing to play Vargas at second, he woudln't be entirely in the outfield for Okla City

12:57

Anything they do would likely be some Rojas/Kiké patchwork

Though it woudl totally be Dodgers if they called up Chris Owings and then he put up an .850 OPS

Volpe

12:57

So. Among young players who do break out (assuming Volpe can at least be an average hitter this year), is 1st year or 2nd year more common?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I don't think there's a pattern

SouthernDandy

12:57

Speaking of bad hitting at 1st, the Astros can't trot out Jose Abreu for much longer. He looks like cornered prey in the batter's box these days. Do you think they look for a trade soon?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I dunno, they didn't seem to care a lot about his awful 2023

I don't think the organization is as well-run as it used to be

Rob

12:59

Miguel Vargas has quickly become an afterthought for the Dodgers. Change of scenery guy? Or just not enough bat to justify no defensive home?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I think he probably needs a new organization

Wyatt

12:59

Where do you sharpen your coding skills for baseball related work? Asking for someone with an internship trying to get into front office/player dev work.

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Me? I don't. I'm a mediocre at best coder who uses stuff that nobody uses anymore

I'm the wrong guy to ask!

Ain't no team going to be impressed by knowing Visual Basic

Bill

1:00

Baseball feels right with Mike Trout playing and playing well

cool

2

Kenny

1:00

Rosenthal said MLB GM’s don’t have to collude because they’re all Wall Street bankers who think the same. Isn’t this worse than collusion? Will MLB see more diversity in executive positions?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Success breeds these changes

Teams are analytically focused and cynical becuase that's what works the best, it appears

Babip Roberts

1:02

Obviously the dude was a unicorn, but how to explain Nolan Ryan? His UCL lasted through almost 3 decades of high-velocity, high-pitch count stress (see also Clemens/Johnson/et al to lesser extents). Any theories on why at least a few pitchers got out alive in the olden days, whereas none seem to do so now?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Because they were the survivors

We'll have survivors too, we just don't get to know who they'll be with a time machine.

Injury rates were always really high

1:03

Nolay Ryan is basically the dude who won Squid Game and then spent his winnings on hair dye

yothere

1:04

When do you think we will see James Wood in a Nationals uniform?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Well, to be technical, we HAVE seen him in a Nats uniform. I would be surprised if a callup was much after the ASB

Phil

1:05

Would you buy a power boost for Connor Wong this year? Given he's sort of middling in most respects, 20-25 HR power would make a difference in his being a legit starting catcher, I should think.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

A little soon for that

It's three homers

CoopDeVille

1:05

Last year I had the bright idea in April to drop Christian Walker for Connor Joe because of the StatCast data. Bad idea. I got sold on Ryan O' Hearn last night. How much do you buy into statcast data as predictive of the season this early?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Quite a lot of it is, especially for hitters

I just ran some data for Jeff yesterday

based on 2023

1:06

I get 44 BIP for hitters being enough to make barrel rate as predictive as league-average barrel rate

1:07

and 37 for hard-hit rate

but for pitchers, it was 172 BIP for hard hit and 586 for barrel rate

SouthernDandy

1:07

I prefer 90's era JRPGs. You ever play Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy 9?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Of course, many times!

1:08

I'm a sucker for IX

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