JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:44

Guest

12:45

How sticky is SweetSpot from year to year Dan, do you happen to know from the top of your head?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

off the top of my head? I'm not sure other than halfway decent?

I don't usually use tha tnumber for stuff

I am the Apple

12:45

What will happen to ZiPS when you die? Not to be morbid, or anything

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I'm...not sure.

12:46

If I drop dead tomorrow, it probably goes to the grave with me

but I've given some thought on what comes next

On one hand, I like the idea of some of my work living on after I'm quickly forgotten

12:47

But on the other hand, this process enables future generations to have their say

So...I'm not sure

I guess it may depend on how quickly I go and when

Ryan O’Hearn

12:47

Is Ryan O’Hearn’s hot start this season just small sample noise or is he having a late career breakout? I know ZiPS was not a fan when the Orioles picked him up, but he turned in a decent 2023 despite bad K/BB.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

The projection has quickly improved!

Doug

12:48

Why isn’t there a definitive luxury tax number reported for each team? SD has been said by some to have around $12m but that just doesn’t make any sense because why on God’s green earth wouldn’t they go with Pham for $3m? Even if Profar keeps up this miraculous hitting, they are trotting out Tyler Wade on the regular.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

It's...complicated

Section 34

12:48

Thank you Dan. I learned the 1970 Orioles should have batted the pitcher 6th! That's something I didn't know about lineup construction. Apparently you should bat your worst hitter 6th ... and your second-worst hitter 9th.

Maybe it explains the success of lineup-out-of-a-hat gimmicks. Thanks for the link!

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Wait, did it suggest that?

That's odd, it used to work

12:48

Is your doctor onboard with your eat-every-other-day thing?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I haven't had my yearly checkup in the interval

Robo umps

12:49

The challenge system is 10x better than Auto-Ball/Strike system. Do you think MLB is stalling on this rollout for a specific reason?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

MLB tends to be conservative

I'm not a fan of the challenges. Don't make having the right call be something that's gamed

Just make the best call

I am the Apple

12:49

How would ZiPS handle projecting Babe Ruth in today's game? Is it easy?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I'm not sure ZiPS is prepared to deal with ALL the differences from 100 years ago to today

Phil

12:50

Would you consider keeping a running Zips projection on the odds of the CWS losing 121 games, or is that too macabre?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I've already made so many macabre jokes about the White Sox

12:51

12:53

Guest

12:53

Looking at 1B the the Defensive WAR looks, how can I say, weird? What makes a good defensive 1st Basemen? Is it range or does the 1B's ability to pick up throws weigh in as I think that might be what most clubs value.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

It tends to look weird because there simply aren't a lot of plays that serve to differentiate a competent 1B and a less competent one

The range of scoops is relatively small

Travis

12:54

How come baseball players don’t hold out or demand trades?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Because they mostly have guaranteed contracts and getting placed on the restricted list can cost them a year of free agency very quickly

Sirras

12:54