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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/23/26

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Guest

12:33

SUP, CAN I PLEASE KNOW MLB PREDICTABLE FACTORS FOR TEAM TO WIN

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Be good at baseball
Don't be a cursed team like the Mets

Chris

12:34

For the Astros starters, who do you have more confidence in Arrighetti or Lambert? Also, curious your take on Lambert K's in majors when he hasn't really shown that even in the minors.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I would have said arrighetti at the start of the season, but even in a small sample size, Lambert *has* been really low contact

and contact rate is significant *quickly*

12:36

So maybe still not Lambert, but I'm intrigued

if that 60% contact rate actually holds, that's really interesting

but still a big if

The Oriole Bird

12:36

This O's team feels like the most .500 team ever. I bet they'll bounce between 1-2 games above or below .500 all year. If SP help is needed, do you think they'll be making a splash at the trade deadline if they're still in the hunt?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It depends on the contours of the race really

12:37

Don't forget the O's have been missing some interesting players

1/2 of Rutschman and all of Westburg and Holliday

(people are too quick to write off Holliday)

Alec

12:37

Not much of a question but good for Peter Lambert, a young SP with Colorado who then heads to NPB for a season doesn't sound like the roadmap for a success story, but two strong starts so far and seems to at least have the chance to hold a rotation spot down for awhile with Houston's injuries. Hope he keeps it up!

Taijuan Walker

12:37

I just got released by the Phillies this morning. Are there any teams who would be interested in picking me up?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Beer league softball teams need someone who can throw batting practice

Fish Fan

12:38

So like, April, but boy am I feeling vindicated for my love of Otto Lopez.

Randy Milligan Fan

12:38

I asked ChatGPT how you could improve ZiPS... and here is the first sentence of the response: "Improving ZiPS is a bit like trying to tune a Formula 1 car that's already winning races--you're not fixing something broken, you're chasing marginal gains in a noisy, partially unknowable system."

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I wouldn't compliment ZiPS by calling it a Formula 1 car, but it is accurate that you chase marginal gains

War2D2

12:39

Dan! What does ZiPS think about Murakami ROS? Infinite early-season caveats applied of course, being on pace for a 65 HR/65 single/zero-other-hits season is all kinds of fun.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

ZiPS has moved up a bit. Remember, ZiPS was already the most confident one

Sam

12:39

how do projection systems account for injury? They all seemed to think that Wheeler would get to ~90% of his previous value while I think most people talking about the injury would be happy with 60% return (e.g. 3 WAR instead of 5) given the velocity declines expected (and now demonstrated in the minors) with the injury

Dan Szymborski

12:39

awkwardly

ZiPS know GENERAL injury categories

like it knows if someone missed 162/TJ

or 120/shoulder

hit tool risk

12:40

think maybe teams overthought the Murakami risks or is it still too early

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Possibly both

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:41

Jose Soriano, Cy Young winner? the knuckle curve really seems to have stepped his game way up.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

He's been legitimately excellent

Beano

12:41

Now that Walker has a couple of saves, is there some stability in the Giants bullpen or is it still Kilian, Winn, Miller, Walker in the mix?
And in DC- is Gus Varland the "guy"?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think it's still chaos mode

Beano

12:41

How long a leash does R Sasaki have in LA? Surely they have better MLB ready pitchers... Why not send him down to find himself?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Not a lot. WALKS WILL HAUNT

Trot Nixon's Dirty Hat

12:42

Do you see a real path for Payton Tolle to remain in the Red Sox rotation, or is this just a spot start until they lose an SP for the season or trade someone?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

If it works out, they'll find a justification to keep doing it

Well-Beered Englishman

12:43

Mahler 7 is underrated

Dan Szymborski

12:43

It MIGHT be

12:44

I mean, it's a rather disjointed work, especially compared to most Mahler symphonies

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