JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24 | 4/24/2025

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

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Guest

12:59

Dan, I need help. Got into a bidding war for Wheeler, have him at 46 salary in a 300-cap 10 team league. Considering dropping him for Webb at 31 salary to give me some much needed flexibility, and since Webb looks so good, but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. Any words of encouragement?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

at that price diff, I prefer Webb

Von Hayes

12:59

that chat app reads "Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24" but it is 2025

Dan Szymborski

12:59

BUT IS IT?

1:00

I'm not looking forward to the presidential election this fall. Trump vs. Biden will be a trainwreck!

Wouldn't it be crazy if Ohtani went 40/40 this year?

1:01

Man, all the Astros starters are injured right now

Dr J

1:01

Are long rough patches at the beginning of the season common for players under 30 players with proven track records for excellence… thinking Yordan here….

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Voros law! Anyone can hit anything in 75 AB

Pitching Wo's

1:01

Should the Orioles pick up Ian Anderson? Is there a reason not to try anyone on the waiver wire, starting pitching wise?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

The O's are in throw crap at wall territory

1:02

plus, the O's don't have any good flautists right now, as far as I can tell

John

1:02

Fill in the blank: Roman Anthony is the ___ best major league hitter in the Red Sox organization right now.

Dan Szymborski

1:04

_fab_best

Guest

1:04

thoughts on Anthony volpe

Dan Szymborski

1:04

for some reason, broadcasters don't really pronounce the v with much emphasis, so I frequently do a double-take because it sounds like someone jusid that "Pulpy" is coming up to the plate

D

1:05

I noticed that the depth charts pages have teams that are projected for 40+ additional WAR this season but the playoff odds pages are much less optimistic. For example, the Rangers DC has them with 40.2 more WAR, which would be around 92 wins, but the playoff odds page projects them for 85.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Depth charts tend to be really optimistic about playing tiem for currently healthy players

Mind Blown

1:05

Remember, preseason projections are better predictors of *next* year's record than the actual record of the intervening season(meaning that you would expect 2025 preseason projections, with no knowledge of any roster things or anything at all that happened in 2025, to still be a slightly better predictor of 2026 record than actual 2025 record)

I feel like I just took the blue pill

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Now, I've only tested ZiPS

1:06

but I expect the other systems woudl do this as wel

recency bias is MASSIVE

People are always like "projections aren't quick enough to move!" but typically, they're not looking at the actual data

1:07

I updated this last year

Take Year 1 preseason projection, Year 1 actual record, and year 2 actual record

1:08

Year 1 preseason projection has an average absolute error of 54 points of win percentage when projecting actualy year 2 win percentage

1:09

Year 1 actual record has an AAV of 59 points of win percentage when projecting year 2 actual record

This is a little old, from 2023

D

1:10

You and ZIPS really nailed the Crochet extension. When you run these, do you figure in any kind of discount the team taking on extra risk by picking up arb years before they have to? Or is it pretty much straight projected value for each year, based on arb/FA?

Dan Szymborski

1:10

projected value. the hope is that ZiPS is accurately capturing the downside risk!

Section 34

1:10

Are the O's already toast this year? It kinda feels like it. One more year of Adley/Gunnar gone.

Dan Szymborski

1:10

They're not toast yet, but those little orange heating lines are orange

David

1:10

Saw the update to Minor league numbers like WRC+; does this impact any of your minor league ZIPS stuff or is that not directly incorporated

Dan Szymborski

1:10

It doesn't

ZiPS already has minor league and park data going all the way back

1:11

My actual minor league park factors go back to 1991, I believe

(it's somewhere around 1991)

Alan

1:11

Dan, I know you have been critical of the Reds signing Emilio Pagan last year. Interested to hear what your thoughts are regarding how they are using him this year.

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