JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:45

If you count amphetamines as not being clean, it may very well be Judge

If you don't disqualify because of amphetamines, then Bonds

12:46

And before someone says it, no, Fay Vincent didn't ban steroids in his memo. Even he didn't think he did. His memo basically banned Pat Gillick or Dave Dombrowski from using steroids.

Bing Bong

12:46

Which of your colleagues would you least want to get into a physical altercation with? No rules. Which one would you most want to fight?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I'm not going to say the second, because that would totally be hostile work environment!

12:47

The first one, Jay, because you should never be dumb enough to pick a fight with someone who has great mustache

12:48

A mustache can add as many 75 pounds of pure muscle to your projection

Me, if I shave my beard and leave a mustache, I look like Gacy. So no mustache

Oaktown Blues

12:50

Who do you think ends the year as the A's WAR leader? I feel like Rooker, Butler, Wilson, Soderstrom, and Langeliers are all possibilities

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I'd put my (theoretical) money on Rooker

Mustaches for everyone!

12:50

In which order do the following players retire? Trout, Freeman, Giancarlo, Kershaw, Goldy, Sale

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Kershaw, Godly, Sale, Giancarlo, Freeman, Trout

Chucky

12:50

The O’s problem is not only their lack of pitching. Their lineup is an east coast version of the Rockies. And besides the O’s might have skated by not resigning Burnes, who’s looked anything but impressive.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

the Rockies WISH they had a 106 wRC+

Pete Alonso new approach

12:51

Given how Pete Alonso’s Baseball Savant page is resembling peak Juan Soto, and a lot of the metrics that tend to be “sticky” are showing such dramatic improvement, is there now reason to believe he’ll age much more gracefully than previously thought? I highly doubt the improvements to his approach will suddenly disappear, and his natural power is so insanely high (just look at that double on a pitcher’s pitch) that it would need to fall very far to even approach average

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I'm definitely interested in seeing the ZiPS in-season update when it's ready

I have a batch run going now

Honey Nut Chourios

12:52

How worried should we be about Chourio’s plate discipline and walk rate?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

moderately. he does enough things that he can have awful plate discipline and still be good, but it limits his upside

Bobby Jenkins

12:52

49.8% odds for the padres to make the playoffs? Hobbled and still top of the NL West. Where's the gap?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

A lot can happen in five months

Remember, preseason projections are better predictors of *next* year's record than the actual record of the intervening season

(meaning that you would expect 2025 preseason projections, with no knowledge of any roster things or anything at all that happened in 2025, to still be a slightly better predictor of 2026 record than actual 2025 record)

Reds Enjoyer

12:54

Taking his contract into account, how long is Jeimer Candelario's leash? I mean the guy is just unwatchable right now...

Dan Szymborski

12:54

A LOT longer than warranted, but even the Reds have limits

GCM Stanton

12:54

I find the ubiquitous gambling (ads and otherwise) kind of icky. And I don't even thing I'm a fuddy duddy. I just wonder if it is the exploitation of multiple bundled human flaws for small private gain. I don't know a way out. Just my gut.

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I'm not personally a fan of gambling (though I have no issue with legality, out of the principle)

Danfango

12:55

Yay or nay on Abundance by Klein and Thompson?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I haven't read it yet (I did read Fight though!), but I'm an abundance Georgist, if that makes sense

robertobeers@gmail.com

12:55

A man, a Dan, a chat, innumerable cats, tacelbaremunnitahcanadanama

bringbackpologrounds

12:56

Is Altuve good at LF (Total Zone), average (Statcast), or ghastly (DRS)?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Derek

12:56

What would Zips put a James Wood extension at right now? How many more 115 mph dingers will it take for him to get a 60+ homer projection (kidding, kind of).

Dan Szymborski

12:56

saving that one for my inevitable extensions piece

Lord Thunder

12:57

What's longer odds ... Luis Robert Jr. staying healthy enough to play in 120 games this season or hitting .250?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

.250

12:58

eyeballing it, I think he has to hit .like .270 now to finish at .250

12:59