JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/28/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/28/22

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BettsBellingerCaruso

12:01

East Coasters that send 8AM meeting requests I hope they metaphorically get hit with terrible BABIP luck for the rest of their lives that is all

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Good afternoon to people with righteous time zones! Good morning to the rest of you.

cool

1

Ryan Breynolds

12:03

When is it time to start panicking with Nick Gonzales? The K-rate seems to be a real problem.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Nick Martinez?

Certainly more than three games. Especially because his plate discipline numbers suggest a lower walk rate.

I'd actually be more worried that he's not throwing as hard as he was overseas.

Flags Fly Forever

12:04

Say something nice about the Nationals (outside Ted Williams Jr.)

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Even when he's erratic, Josiah Gray misses bats.

Guest

12:04

How closely does Steven Kwan comp to Richie Ashburn for ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

73rd it looks like.

If you don't know, now Ynoa

12:06

On a scale of 1 to 10, how excited are you for Acuna's return today?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

11

Duchess

12:06

Had to autodraft in a 15 teamer...set all the values but ended up with like a $25 staff. Was able to snag Greene, Lodolo and Nestor off the waivers early, but still feel like I need a rotation anchor. MI options are Baez, Adames, Polanco and B Lowe. Offered Sandy A. for Baez....seems like a no brainer?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I would take it; I love Alcantara leather.

Gir

12:07

Is Charlie Morton done?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I wouldn't say that.

What's that Odor

12:07

Anything wrong with Bryan Reynolds or is it just April and he'll be good in 3 days

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Don't make me tap the sign!

laughing

2

David

12:08

What's the deal with Robbie Ray's velocity?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I couldn't tell you why, but it's concerning when coupled with the fact that he's not missing bats very well this year.

Guest

12:08

Does ZiPS have an opinion on who is most likely to be the next player with 3000 hits? Are any players above like 25% chance of getting there?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I did an article on this last year! It hasn't changed much since we're basically talking about a month of play since then

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-3000-hit-club-is-closed-for-maintenanc...

JC

12:09

How are you feeling about your Mike Trout bust prediction?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Well, so far, he isn't returning to being a normal star, which is what I worried about.

12:10

And remember, as i clearly state over and over again in the piece, I think of bust in relative terms. Mike Trout, Not a Good Player, was almost never going to be in the cards.

Don Juan

12:10

Have you ever met someone else with more than 5 consonants before the first vowel in their last name?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

SOMETIMES Y

Guest

12:10

what's for lunch today dan

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I was too lazy to go upstairs and make lunch

so lunch has been the bottom of a bag of Poppycock, Pecan Delight flavor.

Jefferson

12:12

Did you plan this chat so you could say "It's April" one more time?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

It's not the Szymborian calendar.

Alan

12:12

Is Packy Naughton the baseball name that sounds most like an old-timey gangster? Asking for science, of course.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Yeah, I made the Boardwalk Empire joke last year and it turned out when I checked afterwards that a billion others already had! I was very sad.

Trey

12:12

Is it weird that Trout hasn't attempted to steal a base yet despite still being 98th percentile in sprint speed?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

There's a lot more to lose with Trout stealing bases than to gain.

John

12:13

Which teams do you believe do the best job with their projection systems which are similar to yours? What would separate one team’s system from others?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm not sure I can really answer this question; even teams that buy my data don't talk to me about how they're using it and they certainly don't give me their projections. Just on a general level, I would expect that the more competent front offices do a better job with projections, but that's just a general correlation.

Baseball Gods

12:15

What is wrong with Swanson and Votto? Can they turn their putrid starts around?

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