JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/28/22

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Norman Golan

12:28

Zips predictions for gorman?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

ZiPS had him as a 2.4 WAR guy in a full season coming into the year, so I doubt that's gone down at alL!

Thomas

12:29

Kevin Gausman's start has been amazing. 24.2 IP, 11.31 K/9, 0 walks, 0 home runs. 0.56 FIP. I don't really have a question, just want to marvel at it

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:29

what is your stance on peanut sauce

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I like peanut sauce

12:30

I'm a fan of peanuts

Trey

12:30

If robo-umps come to MLB, how will that change the way catchers are trained at the amateur level? Obviously we'll still have human umpires in high school and college, so will catchers still hone the craft of framing? Or will emphasis be placed more on blocking and throwing - which will presumably become more of the defensive value for catchers in MLB?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I imagine little will be changed

Adam

12:30

Yesterday a 9-year-old on my son's little league team started telling me, unprompted, about all the things he sees on TikTok, and now I think I know what it feels like to be Murray Chass.

ZiPS and Prospects

12:30

Do you appreciate that the prospect evaluators take longer looks at the people that ZiPS loves? See Bryan Ramos write-up for White Sox.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

As the saying goes, all models are wrong, some are useful.

12:32

If people are finding use for my system, then it's doing my job.

I know I get a TON of knowledge from the prospect gang.

John

12:32

Do teams that buy your data buy the whole data set? Or request a specific look at something? Are those purchases ad hoc or part of some blanket arrangement?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

It depends. What teams need from me isn't even always ZiPS.

Naturally, this makes navigating conflicts of interest very difficult to navigate at times.

12:34

As such, I still go by the policy that ESPN agreed to with me in 2010: I can sell data, so long as I don't offer any advisory opinion and don't discriminate about tasks I take or don't take.

Kyle Wright

12:35

Have I really figured it out? Or is too soon to say?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Wright's an interesting case.

I can't say exactly why the othe projection systems weren't huge on him either.

But I can say for ZiPS

12:36

In the case of Wright, is was the past that was dragging him down

but ZiPS has him with a nice minor league translation for 2021

12:38

Matt (Oceanside)

12:38

How about this idea to test the balls that MLB is using. We start a crowd-source for people that catch foul balls during games to sell them to us and then we test them......WHAT SAY YOU!!! :) Thanks for the chat Dan! Love you dude!

Dan Szymborski

12:39

That's kinda what Dr. Meredith Wills has been doing!

That's one of her sources for testing balls

danny mcgraw

12:39

Does Judge get 7 years in FA?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

NashvillleSounds

12:39

If more relievers had exuberant mustaches and amusing nicknames, would we care less about starters just going through the order twice?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Yes

Freddy Peralta

12:39

Did you know that I currently have the highest K/9 out of all pitchers in MLB history with at least 50 games started? (Until Corbin Burnes starts 5 more games at least) Do you think if I was on a different team, I would get more appreciation?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I did not.

Michael Scott

12:40

Some Braves fan are concerned that the gap between their xwoba (2nd in mlb) and actual runs is a product of the new ball/environment. How valid of a concern is this to you?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

xwoba requires some calibration, so i wouldn't worry about it this early

HornsUp

12:40

There is a 6.1% chance the Dodgers miss the playoffs is a thing only a simulator would say.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Weird things happen sometimes.

12:41

The Padres last year had the worst late season run by a contender since the 86 Orioles

Insert Witty Name Here