JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/29/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

But Soto's a corner outfielder and Tatis has health questions

Marshall

12:46

Who finishes the season closer to their current pace: DeGrom or Trout?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I know this is a crazy question, but I'll say Trout is more likely to finish with 16 WAR than deGrom

Dan

12:47

307 batting average seems really low for a trout 99th percentile or has zips already adjusted for the league wide tanking of batting averages

Dan Szymborski

12:47

It's not a 99th percentile for JUST BA

His 99th percentile BA is higher

but for an OVERALL 99th percentile line, that's what it averages

12:48

A 99th percentile in EVERY skill would be a projection that was WAY above 99th percentile

gabriel

12:48

do you find yourself rooting more for guys that ZiPS likes? thinking of about Ha Seong Kim's slow start

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I try not to, but it is inevitable

It's preferable to look smart than look stupid

Johndarc

12:48

Hey, are the Red Sox actually this good?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I wouldn't go that far

Tony O'D

12:48

Any research on lingering effects of getting hit in the face by a 97mph fastball? (P.S. JUst traded for Harper last week)

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Haven't seen any

But I imagine that there's quite a variance depending on the exact spot the forces are applied

Marshall

12:49

Yesterday Fangraphs had a McCormick advertisement that seemed to suggest Chili has beans. Is that an official endorsement from Fangraphs, or does Fangraphs' brass side with you?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

We have not had a staff meeting about chili

BUT MCCORMICK LIES

12:50

I think my oregano is lying to me because maybe I'm just tired, but that math isn't working.

0.75 + 2.5 * 0.75 = 2.625

Or if they're weirdly meaning 2.5 times as much, 1.875 ounces.

BUT WHY 2.12 ARE HERBS NOT BASE 10?

12:51

Hey @mccormickspices, either you guys owe me about half an ounce of oregano or I owe you about a third of an ounce of oregano. Because 2.12 ounces is 1 7/8 times *more* oregano.

Oddball Herrera

12:51

I love the first amendment, but disputes about what is and is not a sandwich is the single greatest argument for the merits repressive speech chilling regimes

Jon

12:51

Will the Giants be in the playoff race come September?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Probably not. At least division. They could be a dark horse in WC2, but probably not

Guest

12:52

I read that at first as "Galileo was always the barfly cat", which sounds like a fun kind of cat

Jason

12:52

Jed Lowrie has, so far, clearly outperformed his ZIPS projection. I'm curious though, has he outperformed his 3-year ZIPS forecast run after the 2018 season? Is this season really that much of an outlier if ZIPS knew he was healthy?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Lemme check

12:54

ZiPS only saw him as a .253/.319/.387 hitter in 2021 after 2018

He's *really* old

I think there's some LOL Mets magic

Guest

12:55

Did MLB miss a chance with the Astros trash can scandal? I think the better punishment would've been to keep it quiet, and plant someone in the stands to bang on a trash can at the incorrect moments

Dan Szymborski

12:55

then there might be trash can signal calibration

12:56

THAT CAN ISN'T THE RIGHT PITCH

Yelnick McWawa

12:56

I don't understand hitter-centric proposals to solve the "TTO problem." I don't think changes (like moving fences back or deadening balls) that would supposedly encourage hitters to put the ball in play would actually increase contact rate all that much. The pitching is just too good. I think you run the risk of creating a high-K low-power environment.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

You can do multiple things

12:57

The idea is to *incentivize* putting balls in play

Batters *can* make more contact, but you have to sacrifice other things to make more contact

Guest

12:57

Do you hate the Bally Gaming Broadcasts as much as I do? Texas Rangers broadcast I caught was awful.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Yes