JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Guest

12:08

Who is winning the NL Central? (pls say my cubbies)

Dan Szymborski

12:08

ZiPS has hitched itself to the Cubs this year

Nathan

12:08

Just as expected, the Cardinals have not yet trailed at the end of the 9th inning in 2025. We're definitely getting the "Is this team...good?" headlines starting. So if a good 2025 is going to happen...which Cardinal's overperformance (say 90th percentile outcome or something along those lines) would be most impactful on their 2025 outcome?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Walker since ZiPS really hates him

Lowetide

12:09

I know you're going to say too soon to know, but is Jordan Walker real?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Nto convinced yet, but happy to see

Caleb Durbin

12:10

Will I be starting 3b for the Brewers by May 1st?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Ross

12:10

Logged in here specifically hoping to see "April" as the first response. Thank you for your service!

Guest

12:10

Is it now safe to throw out all of our preconceived notions about every player? I feel like we are past due now.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

April!

Barry

12:11

Who is the best player getting traded at the deadline this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I'll say Brandon Lwoe

Lowe

appa yip yip

12:11

have the rumours of george springer's demise been slightly just a little bit maybe exaggerated?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

don't make me tap the calendar

Guest

12:12

Which of the three 100 mil + extensions was closest to Zips predictions? Which extension would you (not Zips) most like to have as a team?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Crochet was really close

I haven't even run Marte

I think I'd like Crochet the best

especially since I'm an Orioles fan

Allan

12:12

Braves playoff odds dropping nearly 25% at FanGraphs after the 0-7 start is pretty devestating

Dan Szymborski

12:13

0-7 is a pretty big deal. Lots of fans think that there's some preordained number of streaks and slumps, but that ain't so

Fred

12:13

Does ZIPs consider exact birth date or just "baseball age"?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

No; I haven't found much of a benefit

Bubbles

12:14

Regarding the swing metrics question, I've been doing some work on minors statcast and trying to find a cutoff of statcast pitch events to avoid noise. I originally had 400, but it sounds like a few dozen PA may be more like 150-200 pitches for a good cutoff?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Yeah, though I always encourage people to try and test things themselves. A lot of times when you're doing research, you find something unexpected

12:15

Until I actually started working with the data, I hadn't really thought how useful first-strike percentage is as a leading indicator of future walk rate

Guest

12:15

Tony Two Bags Rendon hit 34 homers in his walk year and we saw what happened after that, maybe these nicknames serve a real purpose

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Tony One Hip

Reuben

12:16

Hypothetical (motivated by an analogue from another field): Your task is to project major league viability. You have all minor league data but no major league data. The only other information you have to train on is a pre-promotion scouting grade like Longenhagen's FV. Does the fact that we're now looking for fairly high-outcome performance change the nature of how you would go about your projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Not quite sure how to answer this question! A projection is always going to be data-based. If I'm looking for high-end, I might change how I look at the percentiles

Barry

12:17

Who do you think projects the best in the next 3 years.. James Wood or Dylan Crews?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Wood, but I really like both

Sidd

12:18

Jason Foley has been solid for the MudHens 2 appearances. Punishment??

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I don't think it's punishment

They have concerns about his mechanics. I would not have demoted him, but again, I'm not a mechanics expert

Esteban

12:19

Ignoring the possibility of future injuries, how long do you wait before thinking a team is actually good? and i don't mean looking at the record, since early season records can fluctuate and not represent true talent level. like- ok i've seen the rotation 4-5 times now, we have enough data to see that some players are performing above expectations, etc

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I don't think that's a bright line thing

Cromulent

12:19

You should have had a chat on Monday so you could say: March!

Connecting…