JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

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Ketel Marte

12:19

Am I the most underrated superstar in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I STILL think it's Ramirez

12:20

I actually think Yordan Alvarez STILL isn't appreciated as much as his bat demands he be

appa yip yip

12:20

when should we start believing batted ball metrics if there's been a noticeable change in hard hit rate/barrel rate/max ev?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

As ntoed, very quickly

12:21

https://files.slack.com/files-pri/T03FTMT1N-F06USDJ60V9/image.png This suggests 36 hit balls for batters makes regression half towards league average already

oh, i guess that won't link

12:23

top is hitters, bottom is pitchers

Guest

12:23

April, but that's all we have for Matt Shaw as an MLB hitter. up all year? .206/.308/.324 isn't the worst it could be going, but 81.7 avg/101 max ev ain't great either

Dan Szymborski

12:23

This is still very early

Mike

12:23

do you share Pete Walker's excitement over Easton Lucas' potential ?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

meh

boggspuckett

12:24

Any concern about the start to the year from Crews? SSS, but the strikeouts are concerning.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Five games is just too few

BC26

12:24

What percentile do the Dodgers have to hit to win 117

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I had the 1% at 114 going into the season. It is PROBABLY at 117 now

BC26

12:25

If the Yankees want to get in on the extension fun, what would ZiPS offer Volpe or Chisholm?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Hey, I've got my May extension piece to do! Don't take away dudes! lol

Tiger Fan

12:25

I’m curious how much a week(ish) of games can change projections. What player/team has changed their season projections the most from pre season?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Well, Braves

April

12:25

Odds the Braves break the White Sox record from last year?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

heh. approaching zero

only because nothing's truly zero

Mark Prior

12:26

Tanner Scott's gotten off to a weird start this year and his velo is down a tick from the last four years -- should I be worried?

The God of April

12:26

Who can I get to panic next?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Mark Prior :-)

Torpedo Bat

12:26

Will MLB make me a real bat? Or will I be remembered as just another Pinocchio?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Wait, real bat?

12:27

Torpedo bats have been kinda around for a while, but people only lost their shit last week

Michael

12:27

I know it's April 3rd, I know I shouldn't be thinking the season is over, but when you are 0-7 with the only offseason addition missing the next 80 games and one of your better SP's having exploratory shoulder surgery it certainly feels bad. How much does ZIPs have this stuff impacting the Braves division chances and playoff chances?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

BOth of these are extmerely significant

Guest

12:27

Vladdy Jr has 0 homers and Andres Gimenez has 3

Is it time to update our priors and declare Gimenez to be a better power hitter