JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:29

Well, it's less crazy than the occasional Barry Bonds request

12:30

He was projected to a 115 wRC+ in ZiPS in a neutral park last year

That's down to 103 now

Christian

12:30

Cags can't be any worse in the outfield than Renfroe/Melendez, right? RIGHT!?!???

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Things can ALWYAS get worse

Guest

12:31

perhaps a nonsense question, but does max ev stabilize the same way most stats do, or is it more "if you max at 110 in the first 2 weeks, you might hit one 111 down the road, but you're already roughly in the peak area"?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I don't really work with max EV

Guest

12:31

what percentile were 116 and 114 for those mariners and yankees teams, or have you never back-calculated it?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Never actually done it, since I didn't run projections back then

Adam

12:31

Where does Luis Robert Jr end up come the trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I could see him ending up in Atlanta if they're still somewhere around the race

Guest

12:32

Why would Merrill settle for such a team friendly extension this early? I'm sure the security of signing that means more than we can imagine, but it feels like he's leaving a ton on the table.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

A lot can happen in four years

12:33

Teams have a lot of leverage pre-arb and some people are more risk-averse than others

12:34

If he gets a few nasty concussions with consequences, all of a sudden he may be out life-changing money

12:34

Are you at all inclined to tweak ZiPS to account for an emerging consensus that minor league contraction has substantially widened the gap between the high minors and the majors, or is that just something that will correct itself over time as more player seasons get added to the dataset?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

No, and I haven't seen evidence for a significant change.

12:35

Remember, I'm the guy who in public MOST tracks AAA-MLB performance

12:36

Ben L. just wrote about this and I provided data

https://www.theringer.com/2025/03/26/mlb/mlb-prospect-promotions-minor...

12:37

12:38

That's the park/league neutral ratio for hitters from AAA to majors, >200 PA both in AAA and majors, either year 0 ---> Year 0 or year 0--->Year 1

it's SLIGHTLY down, but not anything that ought to change hwo you feel about any player

12:39

I maintained then and still do now that a lot of the perception is the gigantic, sudden reversal of the MLB/minor offensive environments

12:41

PCL ERA was 5.25 in 2024 and 5.69 in 2023.

12:43

I even asked ZiPS to go back and project all players for their initial stint in the majors for 2022-2024 with different ratios of AAA to MLB translation compared to what I actually used. The optimal for projections was to knock 1% off RC/27

appa yip yip

12:43

the difference between 100 million and 300 million when it comes to the quality of life you will lead is zero. bigger numbers are just because players like them and want to make more than each other and also why should the billionaires keep that money instead? merrill made a choice to set himself up forever.

Tim

12:43

Who will be higher rated Thai year and going forward? Austin Wells or Hunter Goodman? As is, they look like a fun platoon if on the same team

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Wells

12:44

unless I'm not understanding the Thai year reference!

I'm getting old, not only do I understand fewer and fewer pop culture things, there are a lot of things I've never even heard of I'm sure

Guest

12:44

Do you think our brains generate consciousness or do you think that we're consciousness that is experiencing personhood?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It bums me out, but I suspect the former. I can't conclude anything because we still have a great deal of problem with consciousness.

I'll have to find out for myself at some point in the next 0 to 40 years

appa yip yip

12:45

if you hit a homerun you are still taking two bags you're just taking them twice. two bags two times.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I wanted Ian Desmond to take jersey number 22 so that he would be Desmond Two-Two

Rufus IX

12:46

If the Dodgers go undefeated, but get swept in their first playoff series, would the season be considered a success?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

after a 162-0 season, probably not

Guest

12:48

I just looked at the AL Central standings. Shocked to see the Twins tied for first.

Logan

12:48

Obviously we don't know the inner workings of the player's mind, but approximately how many teams do you trust would have gotten an extension done with Elly at some point during the past 24 months?

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