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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/9/26

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Guest

12:31

DANAMA! DANAMA-A-A-A-A-A

Guest

12:32

what does ZiPS make of Corbin Carroll's HOF (I know) odds now vs ASB 2024?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Don't have ZiPS open (and I don't really model HOF % though that's on the faraway to do list)

But his outlook is about the same

Guest

12:32

"for the simple fact that it takes more than a day to update ZiPS unless I use two computers" what do you mean your electric costs wouldn't justify this

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I laughed a little when I saw that me, mostly living alone, uses about twice the electricity of an average household monthly

12:35

and that's WITH a high efficiency a/c that's less than 10 years old and no electric car

OK, I checked, not quite double

12:37

that's in kwh

I am the Apple

12:37

Is there a part of ZiPS that’s limited by computer power? Besides time to complete, obviously.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

not really at this point

Even the 5900X can deal quite nicely with anything robust enough for my mind to be able to put it together

I am the Apple

12:37

Has ZiPS ever had a near-death experience?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No, I am on obsessive backup guy

Doug Sisk

12:37

Devin Williams looks like his old self in 2026. Was last season just randomness, or was he a lesser pitcher last year for some reason?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I hate randomness/luck as words simply because they also apply to thing we can't possibly know. I always thought he'd be fine

Your Name

12:38

You've mentioned before that ZiPS is equivalent to team projections for external players, but team projections are better for their own players. What data do you think that the teams have for their own players is missing from ZiPS and will it ever be possible for you to get that data?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

It's hard for me to say honestly, since teams are generally very protective of some of the internal things they have

and I speculate that's the missing ingredient

12:40

because I don't think they'd do better with their own players and not the rest of the league if it *wasn't* proprietary stuff they were tracking

I am the Apple

12:40

If MLB gave you full access to every piece of proprietary data they have - from internal scouting reports to clubhouse dynamics, how much better would ZiPS get? Assuming you had infinite time to figure out the right way to integrate and test it all

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Probably a little. Just how much would depend on how much my brain can get around all the new stuff I'd suddenly have

I suspect that long-term proejctions woudl get a bigger bump than shor tterm

Insert Witty Name Here

12:40

What was that woman's name who was hanging out with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Mona Lisa

12:41

well, you'll ahve to google her yourself

Your Name

12:41

Local media is touting the Konnor Griffin extension as a reason to believe that Pirates' owner Bob Nutting is opening up the wallet. I think if anything it is the opposite, as Griffin arguably left a lot of money on the table. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I dont' think it heralds any change

Wood

12:41

Your mother did the right thing.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Oh, the snow was so powdering and delicate, it took me less than 10 minutes

powdery

War2D2

12:42

I’m a “wear jeans until it’s triple digits out” guy, but my brother is very much a “shorts and t-shirt until 0°f” guy. The story of your mom yelling at you has been played out hundreds of times in his life.

drplantwrench

12:42

is this the year jo becomes the true 5 tool star that had been promised? are he and jordan walker's fates somehow tied?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I'm not sure I'd go that far. The catches were cool though

12:43

Hi Dan, do you think projection systems are too harsh on hitters who come up young and struggle? How could a model detect a real talent change as opposed to a small sample artifact when those players figure it out? Thinking about Jordan Walker here.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I don't think so, simply from testing

old teammate

12:44

Do you have any thoughts on Nate Furman in the SFG system? Unique profile imo

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I kinda wish the Giants seemed more interested in taking a look at him, I know he's had some shoulder issues

Without those, I'd be more grumpy about the Giants playing around with Arraez

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