JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/9/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/9/26

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Guest

12:44

Hey Dan, happy Thursday. As I watch the heart of the Mariner’s order whiff around like they are trying to swat at moths around a lightbulb…I’m wondering (hoping??) that the WBC participation set the regular preparation timeline back. Maybe not being able to gear up against lower level stuff right away somehow impaired them. Do we have split stats showing how all WBC participants have failed this April vs previously? Does this theory seem viable?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Someone on Reddit actually had something on this like a week ago

12:46

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasybaseball/comments/1sauuq0/wbc_players_...

iBut I haven't really dug into it

Wes

12:46

Is there any benefit to a projection system that assumes 1.000 BABIP, or am I just reaching for an excuse for you to develop something called YiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

lol

Jeremy

12:46

Following up on a question that came up in the comments on your Konnor Griffin post: do players who debut in the majors at a very young age tend to peak at a younger age than the typical player?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

They usually can

People who hit their peak earlier are naturally going to be called up earlier

Griffin's ascent won't be as even as ZiPS; it's just that ZiPS is confident he'll break out, but not postiive WHEN

Insert Witty Name Here

12:47

I'm morbidly interested in knowing how Dan describes the biological processes of how babies are made and ZiPS projection of successfully creating said baby.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

heh, gotta save that chat for OnlyDans

Like everything else, my parents/grandparents gave me adult reading material at 4/5 for any question I asked

12:49

I'm likely one of the few little kids who asked "What happens when you die?" to be given reading material on the physical process of putrefaction

I was an utterly voracious reader (and still am)

12:50

I was also already a bit of a troll as a little kid too

When my kindergarten teacher, Ms. Waller, made flash cards of words that kids would pick, she grumbled when the word I wanted her to pick was "Czechoslovakia"

12:51

I'm still a giant ass at heart, but I'm more able to discipline myself interacting with others than when I was five.

RetireNutting

12:52

Griffin's deal shaped so the Pirates don't have to pay him much at all if they end up rebuilding again:

Year 1 2026: $1M salary/$5M signing
Year 2 2027: $2M salary/$3.5M signing
Year 3 2028: $4M salary
Year 4 2029: $6M salary
Year 5 2030: $12.5M salary
Year 6 2031: $21M salary
Year 7 2032: $26.5M salary
Year 8 2033: $27M salary
Year 9 2034: $27M salary

Kevin

12:52

What, if anything, are MLB teams or you doing with AI tools to improve the effectiveness or usefulness of projection models?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I'm not sure specifically of anyone using AI for *this* but then again, I don't

know everything

Fin

12:52

The Red Sox are 4-8. The Mariners are 4-9. The Blue Jays are 5-7 and are running out Lauer, Corbin, and Scherzer this weekend. Which of these AL contenders are you most worried about?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Probably Red Sox because this is a really bad division to spot a few extra games

12:53

I was actually banging the drum for the Jays to sign another pitcher this ofsfeason

Your Name

12:53

The Fangraphs team should buy you a used super computer from a university or national lab or something.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I don't know if I'm smart enough to take advantage of that level of power

kittens?

12:53

am I out of the loop?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Mercutio passed away last year from very sudden acute kidney failure caused by pancreatitis and I adopted two kittens in Feburary

Guest

12:54

I used to run computational fluid dynamic models out of my apartment and I feel your pain. It also put my computer out of commission for days

Denji

12:54

How many new FanGraphs membership sign-ups would it take for Appleman to let you expense a supercomputer that could do a full fat overnight ZiPS run?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I know it's a joke, but I'm sure it wouldn't be a good use of money. Full-fat daily ZiPS isn't going to bring in as many new subscribers as adding even more writing talent or new features

Karl Hungus

12:55

Does ZiPS use data on individual pitches? If yes, do you ever see the effect of throwing a particular pitch more/less over a season?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

It does not, but I'm working on things for a future miodel

the current ZiPS is always a few years behind the one with the most bells and whistles that's still being put together

Wrights_Back

12:56

Regarding your 'randomness' comment ("I hate randomness/luck as words simply because they also apply to things we can't possible know") - and ignoring the plagiarist Donald Rumsfeld - you should read up on Frank Knight, and "Knightian uncertainty.'
Basically, there are things you CAN know and things you CANNOT know. Identifying these as separate categories is the key to eternal prediction happiness.

Karl Hungus

12:56

Does it bother you that Ray Liotta hits right/throws left in Field of Dreams when Joe Jackson was the opposite?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

A bit

I'm not as bothered by this kind of thing as others

Your Name

12:57

https://gsaauctions.gov/auctions/preview/282996

This bad boy is a measly $500k

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