JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/1/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/1/25

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Wireless Joe Jackson

12:14

Did you say doughy or doughty? I feel like you want that "t".

Dan Szymborski

12:14

doughy

12:15

A doughty person wouldn't have a unfinished paint line in his hallway from a paint job he didn't finish 18 years ago

Sharp

12:15

Let's give it up for Braves savior Eli White.

dylan

12:15

is it too early to predict him ending top 30 in mvp votes (wilyer)

Dan Szymborski

12:15

MF Luder

12:17

Is this really who Kameron Misner is?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

This good? probably not

But there was stuff to like in his minor league performances

v2micca

12:17

As a fan, I get really frustrated when a team elects to option clearly superior talent back to the minors simply because the other player is out of options. I have to ask, has hanging on to the clearly lesser player on the major league squad ever really work out better for the team? Because to me, each time if feels like delaying the inevitable and the player is DFAed within a month or two.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

it postpones having to make a decision, something I can totally sympathize with

Cromulent

12:18

Last week somebody asked if signing older players to short-term, low-dollar contracts was a possible market inefficiency teams could pursue. I'm thinking these older players might not want to play along with that - Anthony Rizzo was explicit about it (not just about the $ for himself but the precedent it could set) and we can assume some team(s) must have offered David Robertson a one-year deal. If players were willing, teams would already have exploited this market inefficiency, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think that's probably the case

12:19

I don't know if it's so much in Robertson's cae

but it's hard on a level to tell a dude "Hey, do you want to come work for us? The same job you've been doing, but with a 90% paycut. Also, you might lose your job two months in the season after you've moved to this new city"

12:20

You need someone either specially motivated to keep playing -- and those players exist -- or someone who sees a realistic upside in terms of the future

12:21

Just speaking for me personally, if I had $200 million, there's almost no task that involves me doing something for half a year that you could get me to do for you for $2 million.

Dan

12:22

Putting aside the Aaron Judgeness of it all, his BABIP is .506--clearly unsustainable, and well ahead of his .350 lifetime average. Let's say he ends up with a realistic, career year BABIP-wise... .378-- (same BABIP as Ted Williams when he hit .406). What's a realistic batting average?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

ZiPS actually has his final year-end result at .388 with a .328 BA, so call it .320 or so

Gorman

12:23

How is Gorman struggling so bad and striking out despite massive improvements to O-Zone Swing % and Zone Contact %?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I woudln't go nuts yet, it's liek 50 PA

Oddball Herrera

12:23

Who to you has been the worst offender on the "a breakout is perpetually imminent" team? I've got Jo Adell and Jordan Walker on there, and I have a feeling Dylan Crews will eventually be team captain

Dan Szymborski

12:23

For a long time it was Nomar Mazara. I was constantly tricked into thinking the power was coming

I think you're too soon for Crews!

MF Luder

12:24

I don't think 2023 Edouard Julien was a fluke. Am I in denial?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I still think he'll be fine, probably needs a new team

Alfresco

12:24

In a Scoresheet league (OBP and defense are taken into account) would you trade Bryan Reynolds for Aaron Nola? I desperately need SP.
Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

if you're desperate, I'd do that

Luca

12:25

Streaming Taijuan Walker today at home against the Nats?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I would not

Resolution

12:25

What on earth are the Pirates doing with Henry Davis? Shouldn’t he just be up playing for them?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I have no idea WTF the Pirates are doing half the time with their roster

12:26

I'm still confused about the Cruz/IKF shuffle

A's

12:27

Jacob Wilson's peak is a top ____ SS in the MLB

Dan Szymborski

12:27

notch

Dan, HELP!

12:27

Justin Martinez owner here. Who do I pick up as a handcuff? Shelby Miller? Ginkel? Thompson?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I'd be most comfortable with Ginkel

12:28

It is kinda amusing that in the end, Shelby Miller may outlast both Heyward and Walden (and he's already outlasted Walden)

12:28

Do you think the ZiPs ROS is too negative on Ben Rice defense?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Yes

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