JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/13/2019

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/13/2019

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Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's tough, a lot of games are baked in the cake

and I have a high confidence that at least three teams are better than them.

12:35

Which is a problem when you're behind.

It's not like the Brewers situation some years ago when they were clearly worse than the teams behind them but they had a lead

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Hopefully this works, I was trying to quickly find a Giolito changeup that looked almost circle changey in its break

12:36

SO I've been looking at all his swing-and-miss changeups in those two gameday zones while chatting!

Xolo

12:36

What's going on with Machado this year? Is it just a post-free agency and/or World Series hangover or something more worrisome?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Not worried

Sandor

12:37

Is Joey Votto done?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No, but I think the power bouncebacks that happen periodically are done

RJ

12:37

If 1995 Greg Maddux were magically transported to 2019, would he strikeout more batters than in his own time? What is the proper way to think about the strikeout era? Does a rising tide lift all boats?

cool

1

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Yes, he'd strikeout more guys

If you don't adjust for league strikeout rates

12:38

Existing pitchers also had their strikeouts decline much slower than the normal aging curve

I actually think Glavine would have more issues

12:39

I think the age of statcast and pitchfx would shine a brighter light on some of the outside space the veteran umps gave him

Bigfoot Erotica

12:39

Can you confirm if Josh Bell is real, spectacular?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

It's hard to fake this kind of power

12:40

And I've been a Bell skeptic in the past

His minor league career felt to Yonder Alonsish.

robertobeers

12:40

A Dan, A Plan, A Chat, Tahcanalpanada

Tyler Vandergriff

12:40

What I supposed to make about defensive metrics? Fangraphs and UZR gave Matt Duffy as like a top 8 third baseman, DRS has him as a minus defender, and BP’s FRAA has him only behind Chapman!

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Don't take small sample size defense too seriously

In terms of predictive value

12:41

A year of defensive stats has about the same predictive value as two months of offensive stats

So six weeks of offensive stats...do the math.

Seriously, I'm not your Division King.

robertobeers

12:41

At this point, standard doesn't really have any "fun" matchups, the wild format feels the freshest. What decks are you having fun playing?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Been mostly in Arena

12:42

I usually enjoy Standard for a month and then play Arena the rest of the time.

I do enjoy mucking around with Dragon Paladin, but it's not very good.

I really wish Priest/Paladin had been given board clears this expansion.

Chuncey Wiggins

12:43

I'm not sure if you're the correct person to ask this or not, but if a first baseman could fit a baseball completely inside his mouth, would he have to tag a baserunner with his face? Or would any appendage work?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Wouldn't work.

MLB explicitly defines tags as having the ball in the hand or the glove.

12:44

Think of the ball as a magic out orb.

And a baseball glove is a conductor of outricity

12:45

but anything that's not a glove or a hand, has outrical resistance.

I think if the player plays without a glove, using his mouth as a glove in normal plays.

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