JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/24

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:17

JAWS of 39.9

12:18

Which puts him around Stanton (which is also where Stanton is likely tend up), Staub, Parker and those guys

But ahead of Baines, who along with Morris, has become the WTF Veterans Committee example that tons of players are better than

Idiotic Failson

12:19

Do the Astros make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I think they're rather coinflippy

12:20

The AL West hasn't pulled away while they where down

And as the pitching comes back, they get more dangerous

12:21

The wins required for WC2 and WC3 have dropped quite a bit in ZiPS

Joe

12:22

Adley Rutschman is having his best offensive season, but he's walking way less than league average, has one of the slowest swings in baseball, and is chasing everything. Yet he's hitting the ball harder than he ever has. Explain?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

He has a contact % way over average and given how hard he's hitting things, he's incentivized to be aggressive more

12:23

I'd have to think about it. He'd probably be fifth if he made it

but I'm in Cincy BBWAA, so it's unlikely I'll be voting for AL Cy under any circumstances

12:24

If they needed someone to cover an AL chapter with not enough voters and reached out to me, I'd suggest they reach out to Jay, who STILL hasn't voted ina year-end award because NY is so ddeep

Oh, I didn't paste the question

Will

12:24

Is Mason Miller on your early-season Cy Young ballot?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

That was the Q

Jack

12:25

Good afternoon (EDT)! I'd like to know how you decide what games to watch in a day. Starting pitchers? Teams? Leverage index?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Mostly chaos

12:26

Depends on what I'm doing at any given time

Guest

12:27

With several scouts and higher ranking baseball minds saying they have never seen such a talent gap between AAA and MLB, does zips projections need to be recalibrated to show this gap in futurre releases? One name comes to mind if Wyatt Langford. He looked like a hall of famer in minors ( A, AA , AAA) but has been less than replacement in decent MLB PA sample size. His projection seems way to generous for 2024.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I've looked at it, and in early over/underperformance, I haven't found anything substantial

12:28

Langford's projection was unusually aggressive

I think some of the perception is that people dont' necessarily get just how massive the difference in offense between AAA and MLB is right now

12:30

MLB is at 4.3 R/G now. International League is 5.2 and Pacific Coast at 5.8

Basically a AAA pitcher's translation at the moment is their actual AAA numbers

while the difference in translation for AAA hitter and MLB hitter is more akin to the typical relationship between AA and MLB

V

12:30

Dan, i know this isn't your department but Roster Resource is borderline unusable on Chrome

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Like right now? Or always?

I used it this morning and didn't notice anything]

and I use Chrome

Rabbit ball question continuation

12:31

If the league hadn’t changed the rabbit ball, which disproportionately impacted guys like Bregman, Rendom, and Yelich, would those players have been easy hall of fame superstars? How many other ball/rule changes in history have impacted guys similarly for the better or worse?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Rendon's larger issue has been injuries; I don't think a ball change did that to him

12:32

and I'm not sure it disproportionally affected Yelich either

he's never been a huge loft guy

12:33

And I'm not sure how much we can blame for Bregman. It could just have very well been an age 24-25 peak

Yosef

12:33

Hi Dan, which other statistic do you think can be combined with the new bat tracking data to help accurately evaluate player projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I'm not venturing a guess until there are more years of data

because there are always surprises

Grandal Richuk

12:34

Is there any hope for the Cardinals getting sold? I do not trust this ownership/management combo and they seem inseparable

Dan Szymborski

12:34

No idea.

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Dan Szymborski hosts a chat