JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/19/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/19/22

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Dan Szymborski

1:01

Bro-ham

1:02

Hey, you once mentioned that ZIPs hasn't missed on a prospect call being a future superstar at a certain threshold...or something like that. Can you refresh my memory please? Believe it was in the context of Julio Rodriguez...

Dan Szymborski

1:02

'twas J-Rod

1:03

in the Mariners ZiPS

and I mentioned it in the last piece I did!

Guaku

1:03

A neighbor told me he sat on a plane next to a famous baseball player, and he drank Miller lites the whole time. I asked who it was and he said Wade Boggs. He is a casual fan at best and had never heard the Boggs airplane story.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

love

1

crying

1

If you don't hang out on Twitter, AI Art of baseball things is the shenanigan I've been into this week

1:04

TooDamnTall

1:05

I noticed in your interesting long-term deals article that Zips projections are all on a declining slope, even for players going through prime years. (J-Rodriguez did have one slight increase for one year). Does zips usually do this and I have never noticed until now?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

When a player is already REALLY good and at their peak, the skewed risk curve tends to overwhelm the slight improvements possible

Number20

1:06

In evaluating past performance does Zips incorporate any penalty for bats taken as DH or PH?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

DH, no, because there's no actual reason to

Both MGL and I have studied the issue quite a bit and find a lot of evidence that a healthy player playing DH will find it slightly harder to hit than when playing a position

PH yes

Because everyone sucks at PH

1:07

I actually found that projections get slightly *more* accurate if you just eliminate PH appearances

Despite literally destroying data!

Morbo

1:07

John, average launch angle is almost useless. Look at sweetspot% to get an idea for how often Julio hits the ball at optimal angles

Doumit Paradox

1:07

Any chance that Fangraphs and BR sit down and hash out a universal WAR system? There's some huge discrepancies that weaken the validity of WAR overall --perhaps most notably the almost 7 WAR different in Ryan Doumit's 2008 season (FG -3.4, BR 3.3). Meaning, how valid can a metric be if one version says a guy is a good regular, and the other one of the worst seasons in baseball history?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

But you're finding the most *stunning* difference

rather than a typical difference

1:09

And not focusing also on what the differences *are*

In the constructions

Freshbasil

1:09

Is there a listing of chat schedules for fangraphs? I'm always late to everything

Dan Szymborski

1:10

On the right side underneath the zips projection table!

Of the main page

Bro-ham

1:10

You clearly aren't approaching 30...nothing works as good when you get there...

Dan Szymborski

1:10

Wait, me?

Dude, I'm going to be 44 in a month

Rip Calkin

1:10

How does being in a more neutral park help win games though? It's not like the team hasn't been able to contend in that park.

Dan Szymborski

1:10

I'm of the believe -- though I cannot prove it -- that it's a long-term benefit to a team to be able to perform similar at home than in a typical park.

1:11

belief

Vic

1:11

Will Sixto Sanchez make it to an MLB mound this year?

Dan Szymborski

1:11

I'm hopeful

Zwak

1:11

If an average person who happened to be a master magician/illusionist tried pitching, would they be effective?

Dan Szymborski

1:11

I think it's tricky because you kinda need a willing audience and you have to CONTINUE the sleight of hand

But it would be a fun experiment

1:12

To have a pitcher who is out with TJ surgery and can't throw yet

to get magic lessons or something

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