JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/2/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:42

then it calculates an expected winning percentage from the RA and the roughly expected level of offense

12:43

it uses a higher pythag exponents than on the team level as that's more accurate

weird chat

12:43

remember when people called you Dave? those were the days of weird chats!

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Hey, I had editors at ESPN call me Dave!

I got Daved a lot more then

12:44

It seems that people have figured out my name is Dan

MilwaukeeBeerJays

12:44

Do you ever play tactical RPGs? I'm playing wasteland 3 right now. The writing is strong and the gameplay good.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I do!

Last I played were the Tactics Ogre remaster and Triangle Strategy

12:45

then I did a full run of the Kiseki games (though just straight up JRPG, not tactical) because Reverie was coming out (and Kuro this summer).

and I've been replaying the old Heroes of Might & Magic games

and Eiyuden Chronicles

Guest

12:45

it is a real tragedy but it looks like the last 10 years of Mike Trout's contract are going to look eerily similar to those of Albert Pujols as far as bang for the buck.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

:-(

Matt

12:47

Orelvis Martinez has committed an error in about a third of innings played in his new defensive “home” at 2B. Where do you see him fitting in with the Jays long term?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I would note that his minor league fielding percentage is better at 2B than SS or 3GB

That'll simply improve naturally; fielding percentages go up at higher levels

GATES BROWN

12:47

Jo Adell. Are the last few weeks a sign of more goodness to come or is it just a mirage?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I'm...not sure?

There were legitimate reasons to really like him as a prospect

and he JUST turned 25

but he was mediocre for so long...

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:48

Do you ever go back and see how many players hit their 99th percentile ZiPS projection for each year? Their 1st percentile (I feel like Tim Anderson may have been a candidate for this last year).

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I do!

It's pinned on my twitter IIRC

12:49

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1730270466726883773

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How did ZiPS work in 2023? Here are the percent of players (min. 300 PA or 40 IP) who exceeded their Nth percentile projections for ERA+ and OPS+ in 2023. I'm very pleased, though always want to improve. <a href="https://t.co/eLFpkWjWdz">pic.twitter.com/eLFpkWjWdz</a></p... Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1730270466726883773?ref_src=tws... 30, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

ok THAT didn't work

Tyler J

12:50

Weird thing I noticed, not sure how far up your alley this particular subject is - Dbacks prospect Cristofer Torin (who a lot of people really like) has probably the widest PV/FV split on his hit tool that I can recall seeing (25/70) via FanGraphs scouting. How is it possible that such a split could exist (for him, or maybe just in general)?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

That's kind of an Eric question: I can't go into his brain!

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:50

Somehow the FG projected standings have the White Sox winning 59 games. 59! This looks like the worst team since the 2003 Tigers. Do the pail hose have a chance to match them at 43?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I did a piece ont hat last week!

Though they had a better week

bringbackpologrounds

12:51

Which active pitcher has the most projected WAR for the rest of their career?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Logan Webb

then Strider (PRE injury)

12:53

Kirby, Gilbert, Castillo, Framber, Gallen, Pablo Lopez, McClanahan, Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, Eury Perez (also pre injury), Cease, Burnes, Grayson, Bradish, Steele, Luzardo, Alcantara

12:53

Is Jurickson Profar the most confusing player of all time? Or is he just an SD vibes only player

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