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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/21/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:16

I actually don't know either, though I did notice that he's being used a lot in low-leverage situations suddenly

Guest

12:16

Will the Marlins ever actually win again?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

They're not a bad team!

Alex

12:17

Dom Smith is quietly having a nice season as the Braves' part-time DH; even though it's just been 100 PA, he's clearly had his best results since his 2020 breakout. Any clues that this might not be a mirage, and that perhaps, this time, he might have found a role that could suit him for a while?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I'm highly skeptical. So is ZiPS; it estimates his zBABIP at like 50 points lower than it is

which he'd still be pretty good. But he's been so aggressive at the plate, that I'll be more confident if he's still doing this after a pitcher adjustment cycle

Big Buckston

12:19

TJ Rumfield: Haven't seen him talked about much, but seems like he may have been a sneaky good pickup for a rebuilding Rockies team? He looks like he belongs in the big leagues and was a great get for a fringey relief guy.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

He was a good idea to get. The Rockies have figured out for the last two years or so that the "throw shit to the wall and see what sticks" portion of a rebuild doesn't mean do that with 34 year old fringe MLBers

oaktownblues

12:20

Did Henry Bolte's AAA showing meaningfully improve his ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It did, but I have to open the full ZiPS to get it (which I'm doing now)

12:22

Sorry, mechanic just called to let me know that my brake job will be done tomorrow.

Dealer wanted $1600 for front/back pads and rotors, which is crazy. Luckily, the mechanic is only charging 950

12:23

My pads were down at 2/16 and 3/16 despite only 28K miles because apparently I drive like a crazed baboon.

OK yes, on Bolte

his full fat ZiPS ROS wRC+ is 105

oaktownblues

12:23

What are the main things captured by full-fat ZiPS that the simpler ROS model leaves out?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Minor league data, statcast data

12:24

The minor league thing, we still have to set up FG to do automatic translations

the other stuff is a lot harder and some of the things ZiPS does to model the future

It takes more than 24 hours of PC time to do a full run of batters and pitchers, so a simpler model is used in-season on-site

Your Name

12:24

What scale does ZiPS use for defensive value? DRS thought defense ranged from +89 to -59 on a team level last year for a 148 run range versus FRV at only +44 to -53 for a much narrower 97 run range.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't have it constrained to a specific range

Oliver Fox

12:27

What explains this Aroldis Chapman late-30s Linsanity run on the Red Sox? Can't just be that he's using a sinker more, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I mean, it's a 99 mph sinker!

12:29

I can't prove it, but he seems a lot less "cute" on first pitches than he used to be

12:30

I'd have to do a search later to see if my inclination is right

It FEELS like he's less likely to throw 0-0 pitches and dares hitters to guess between fastball/sinker

War2D2

12:31

Dan! I already complained about this to Jay, but the Cubs have been remarkably bad at leaving runners on base, averaging almost 1 more runner per game than the next-worst team (the Pirates). If I see Alex Bregman pop out with runners in scoring position one more time I’m gonna barf. This is all small-sample pain, right? Right? Please god tell me I’m right.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Yeah, things that aren't predictive can still feel like crap

Like the time my mom got a flat tire in her car, borrowed my car, and got a flat tire in my car the next day

12:32

Which still annoys me because she called me when she got the second flat tire and I'm like "what do you expect me to do, you already have my car, call Meg"

Oops, my sister Meg, not FanGraphs Meg

Ian

12:32

The O's predictably have bottomed out but its not just the pitching. Projections and pundits liked this lineup in the preseason. As someone who has been a doubter of most this young core since 2024, why do you think projections were still high on this lineup? e.g. Colton Cowser had a 4 oWAR projection

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I mean, there's no systematic reason for projections to like them

12:33

Sometimes, a rose is just a rose. They're just playing poor, inconsistent baseball

Justin

12:33

Will Jesus made be called up this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I suspect no

oaktownblues