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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/21/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:34

I have a fear of flying just enough to make it annoying. I still get on the damn plane

12:35

but it does mean that I don't fly a whole bunch unless I really NEED to

so I'm not out west very often

I don't think I've been west of Las Vegas since before 2018

JWR

12:35

How can the Cubs go so quickly from world-beaters to bums? Who do you like to win the NL Central now--Brewers, Cubs or the field?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Still Cubs

Nolan Arenado

12:35

Am I back?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Feels more like a last hurrah than being back

but I'll still take it

Guest

12:35

re: Guardians swing length - it's a Progressive Field glitch that started in late April
https://x.com/hscer/status/2056495127187628422

Dan Szymborski

12:35

good catch!

OttoKempBots, Roll Out

12:36

What are the odds of an "everybody gets old at once" crash for the Dodgers. I know they're low, but something feels a little off about Freeman and Betts, and...

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I mean FAIRLY low to have it all happen at once, but I do keep bringing it up as a worry

the Dodgers are not a young team

Not that they don't develop talent, but the most valuable players are MOSTLY not very young

Terrance

12:36

Would you seriously consider calling the Rays and gauging their interest in some of your own prospects to see which ones you should never trade? I’m being serious.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Even the Rays slip up once in a while

12:39

Marquez, Cronenworth

Remember, when they were involved in the three way Wil Myers trade, it was the NATS who wanted Trea Turner

War2D2

12:39

Mike Petriello just posted on Bluesky (which I can’t help but pronounce in my head as “Blooski” in a Joliet Jake accent) that Ke’bryan Hayes has been a mediocre-to-bad fielder this year, rendering him almost unplayable. Defense doesn’t usually crater like this year-over-year, does it? Dude is only 29 but has an OPS+ in the teens and if he’s not fielding…eesh.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Yeah, he bascially has to be a Gold Glover to be a MLBer

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:40

Oh thank goodness, anonymous chats are back.

Idiotic Failson

12:42

I noticed that you were gone on vacation. Don't do that again without clearance.

I feel like people throw around '99 MPH sinker' or '100 mph cutter' too flippantly. A pitch moving that fast then moving at the last minute is diabolical.

Lord Thunder

12:42

Why have the Orioles fallen so short of the expectations from several years ago?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Paying back for the 2023 when everyone was mad at me? Lol

Patient Zero

12:43

Question I've been sitting on for a few weeks now: Do you consider Kevin Mitchell's one-bare-handed catch to be the single greatest defensive play of all time, or merely one of the best? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:43

That was a fun play

I'd love to see the starting point though from an overhead cam

War2D2

12:44

Petco is probably the best fan experience I’ve had, and I’ve been to a dozen parks. Everything just really flows well there, there’s a lot to do and see for young kids, the weather is perfect, and the food is good. I don’t have any special insight other than to say you’ll probably have a great time regardless.

Mike Trout Mask Replica

12:44

Welcome back Dan! Can you please bring the Tigers back from vacation too?

PokeyReese'04

12:44

Top 3 teams you would be skeptical of trading with (Rays, Brewers, ____)?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Angels, because I'm not sure they have what I want!

Poochie The Rockin' Dog

12:44

I'm a kung fu hippie from Gangsta City

ROS Adjustments

12:44

I've always wondered how projection systems adjust to players who exceed expectations. At some point, a player establishes a new baseline for performance, right? How is early performance weighed against other inputs? The short answer would be great :)

Dan Szymborski

12:45

ZiPS mixes in the new performance to set a new baseline and then reprojects

Stop, OAA don't love you like I love you

12:45

Jordan Walker has 7 DRS and 0 OAA. Do you have any sense of what typically contributes to gaps like this?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Well, you have a human-involved methodology and a tracking-related one, so you're going to get different results in small samples

Jeremy

12:45

How sure are we that the Brewers have some sort of secret sauce that allows them to consistently outperform their projections? It's only a few seasons over which they've been doing this. Even if no team has any secret sauce that the projection systems aren't capturing, surely it's not surprising if (at least) one team out of 30 outperforms its projections a few seasons in a row.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I'm not sure they have a secret sauce. The *team* actually outperforms their projections far more than the individual players have as a gruop

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