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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/21/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

What happens in the case of ZiPS, is the Brewers are way more aggressive at promoting players than I've assumed when doing the sims

12:47

ZiPS isn't doing a bad job projecting players. *I'm* doing a poor job at projecting who will get playing time

EccentricATLFan

12:47

Just curious to know what else is in your will after finding out "continuing your TI-92 feud with your sister even after your death" is part of it.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

My executor has to say something mean about Carson on my birthday every year

12:48

on my Twitter account

My will also contains the location of the encrypted ZiPS thumb drive hidden in a state park

12:49

also, anybody who uses circumstances of my death for a political end, even one I agree with, does not get anything

12:50

Also, Alan has to beat Blaster Master on NES without save states on an emulator

He hated that game

12:51

He's been my best friend for 40 years and I KNOW he'll endeavor to do all the stupid stuff in my will

Guest

12:51

dan, you're no poochie. we want you to survive the trip back to your home planet ; )

Guest

12:51

is Basallo a top 10 C ROS or is Adley still the guy

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I think with defense, no

The Oriole Bird

12:51

What's up with Gunnar Henderson?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I wish I knew! If anyone does, please call the O's

Guest

12:52

After two losses to the Nationals, I'm back to feeling this season will just be tragic for the Mets. Is it possible you or ZIPS can offer an optimism besides "Bichette won't be this bad all year"?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

The problem is the hole they dug. Even if they're the team projections thought, they probably fall short of playoffs

Your Name

12:53

So far the Brewers are at 5.04 R/G and 3.45 RA/G. BaseRuns thinks they should be at 4.63 R/G and 3.44 RA/G. Depth Charts projects 4.49 R/G and 4.32 RA/G rest of season. PECOTA is around 4.60 R/G and 4.04 RA/G. What says ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Last check, ZiPS was around 4.70

I've been more aggrssive this year giving playing time to the guys with good projections

Jeremy

12:53

Is Aaron Nola cooked? And if he is cooked, why? He hasn't lost fastball velocity (though he has lost it relative to the league average--is that part of it?). He doesn't seem to have lost stuff or command, as best I can tell.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

HAS he not lost command? I mean he's not walking a lot of guys, but he certainly looks like he hangs some stuff more than he used to

dooz

12:54

is quinn mathews still a guy for St Louis?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

He might be, but I think he's very close to the time they have to try him in the bullpen

12:57

His command has been

and he may need to edit down his repertoire and simplify the approach, which is easier to do in relief

Smartest Man in Baseball btw

12:57

The Red Sox really won the Salary Dump Jackpot and then just went “actually we’d rather just suck lol,” huh?

Joe

12:57

Is Mickey Gasper an everyday big leaguer?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Everyday? probably not. But he's been more interesting offensively than people have been given credit for

salvo

12:57

Re: visits to Petco: the sun on the 1b side of the stands can be brutal on a warm day game.

Mike Trout Mask Replica

12:58

The Tigers have looked cooked lately, but at least Riley Greene is on a heater! Is this a new Riley 3.0, or just a really lucky BABIP stretch? Its clear that he's swinging at less absolute garbage than last year and taking more walks. Does this look like a conscious decision to trade off some power for contact, or is it just a random fluctuation?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I'm hopeful in that as you note, he DID come back down from the increased aggression he had last year

12:59

BA will come down of course

Your Name

12:59

The Brewers have beat their preseason Depth Charts win projections in eight of the nine complete seasons since 2016 for a cumulative +87 wins, five of those seasons have been +12 wins or more. They are on pace for another double digit overage again this year. It's more than a few seasons at this point, Jeremy.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I can only speak on the ZiPS end

RaysUP

1:00

Erik Neander > everyone. That’s all.

Sirras

1:00

Dan, would you rather get into a tense argument with two Jose Altuve sized Aaron Judges or one Aaron Judge sized Jose Altuve?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

One Aaron Judge-sized Altuve