JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/22/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/22/25

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Ceddy B Ready

12:33

Look, don't be ashamed. Just say Taylor Swift's Anti-Hero and move on from the pop songs.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I don't really know the song. I know Shake it Off because that was playing everywhere for a year. And I know I Knew You Were Trouble mainly because the nerdy reddit meme for a while of someone mashing that weird Brotherman Bill song with it

12:35

Just like I know Cooking By the Book because of the joke Lil Jon mashup

Johnny5Alive

12:36

Like I know the media loves to overblow things and the stats are still very good (just not what's expected). Last night looked atrocious, struck out in first two at bats without ever taking the bat off his shoulder. What's up with Soto? Heel turn?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Passiveness is an eternal danger for a highly disciplined hitter

Guest

12:37

Who can the Cubs trade for at the deadline because their closer role is still in question?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

It REALLY depends on who is avaialble

12:38

Like if the ERA is coming down to the peripherals and the O's are still far out of it, I think they may trade Cano

Oddball Herrera

12:38

I think you go full head of graying hair 100% of the time. Not everyone has optimal head shape for baldness, and with white/gray hair you always have the option of going Full Gandalf

Ceddy B Ready

12:39

Anti-Hero is a great storytelling pop song. It has Folksy pop vibes, especially the acoustic version.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I think I've just largely aged out of the genre. Like, I've bought a ton of albums in the 2020s, but they were all bands I was listening to in 2000 to 2015

12:40

like yeah, I'll buy a new decemberists or new pornographers album just because one is out, but any person my age who isn't already a fan probably isn't going to be

Lord Thunder

12:40

Will Max Muncy be on the Dodgers' roster a year from now?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Yes

12:41

unless you mean the other one, which is no

(Want to make sure no loophole)

Old guys

12:41

The Eovaldi article a few days ago mentioned research that guys who throw lots of different pitches in any count outperform their stuff. Can that help explain Sugano?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

It could, but we don't have a TON of Sugano starts yet

laughingstock

12:42

Are you planning to incorporate the new bat-tracking stats into ZiPS in some way?

trophy

1

Dan Szymborski

12:42

If they improve the model, I'll add Oma's spaetzle recipe

Oddball Herrera

12:42

These new swing path stats are neat but I wonder at their usefulness beyond IDing negative deviations from what made a particular batter successful. There are just too many ways to successfully skin the batting cat…

cool

1

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Now, I don't *hurry* to incorporate new things. A lot of times, something new is largely being captured indirectly

And a lot of times, the new thing is more complicated than it looks

Taker55

12:43

Is it safe to say now that Vladdy wasn't beating $500mm on the open market this winter?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I don't believe he was going to, even without a rather meh start

I think the Blue Jays looked at the abyss and thought about trying to re-sign and missing out *again* on a guy they want to pay a lot o fmoney to

Taker55

12:43

Every 2026 FA list seems to like Cease over Michael King and I just don't see it. Who would you rather sign long term?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Weirdly, I think King

12:44

Given that starting pitchers aren't expected to go 7-8 innings a start anymore

I think keeping pitchers relievers for a while and then moving them to the rotation is going to be a continued thing

Dave

12:45

I absolutely hate the narrative that Juan Soto isn't worth it.. Reports like he's gained too much weight, he doesn't like it New York make me mad. He is still an above average hitter despite him going through a slump. This guy will likely be 150 WRC+ for years to come

Dan Szymborski

12:45

There's really no reason to get mad. The Mets and Soto are tied for life, so it should always be about what makes him better

I am the Apple

12:45

Felix Hernandez has a borderline HoF case as a starter. What would ZiPS project his career WAR to be as a reliever? Would he still have been a borderline HoF pitcher, or would it have been an easier yes or easier no?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I'm not even positive that he misses on peak. I'm going to have to consider it this fall

I haven't projected him as a reliever psecifically

Guest

12:46

Better hitter. Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think purely as a hitter, Ramirez ha the higher upside

Guest

12:46

who will have more 2026 war, A Barger or LAD Muncy

AB

12:49

Best Ween album?

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