JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/22/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/22/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:49

Quebec

Oh wait, I just thought the answer to the last Q and didn't actually type it

12:50

Sorry, I forget how communication works sometime

I think Muncy. Barger's actually been solid this year, but I'm not sure solid enough that he grabs a job

if the Dodgers tire of Muncy, he'll end up a platoon DH somewhere and get good playing time that way

Guest

12:50

Where would you rank xwOBA overall as an evaluator of a hitter?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

These numbers are all solid, but one has to remember that the longer a player outperforms/underperforms these measures, the more likely there's a deviation in skill from the model

Eric

12:51

What's more likely, Conforto recovering from his putrid start, him continuing to scuffle but staying in his spot, or him scuffling and being replaced at the trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I think at this stage, he's largely a stopgap starter/fourth outfielder. It's been a long time since he was *good*

12:52

I mean, he hit SOME last year, but he better since he doesn't really have any defensive value

AB

12:52

Good choice but imo hard to beat the Mollusk

Bouncy Bouncy

12:52

What’s up with Christian Walker? Is he gonna turn it around with all these k’s?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Him I'm cautiously optimistic about. His contact rate isn't all that different than his career and he's still hitting things hard

AB

12:53

Roengardner kid for real? He’s throwing 100+

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Injury prone

Benny Agbayani

12:53

Juan Soto has an .803 OPS next to his almost all red Baseball Savant rankings. This is nothing, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Probably

Yordone

12:53

I’m losing faith in the Astro’s transparency w/re injuries. O/U number of hands currently attached to Yordan’s body: +/- 1.5?

O’s Woes

12:53

O’s won last night, so… fixed? Can they do enough to compete this year? Should they?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

They CAN, but they really need to have a crazy tear soon

The math is really bad

Guest

12:53

what if the difference in the RoS version and the UPD version?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

RoS is rest of season updated projection

12:54

Update is the RoS added to wha's already banked

Rudy Waltz

12:54

How bad is the Bryan Reynolds contract going to look for the Pirates by the end of the year?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Pretty bad as it looks so now

and the Pirates are going to use it as an excuse to not spend on players

Well, an additional one of course

John Paul

12:54

There is no way Skenes get traded right?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I don't think there is any way he gets traded this yera

Taker55

12:54

What is your confidence level on Mike Elias building a pitching pipeline?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

It's...volatile

Taker55

12:55

Should we be looking more at those 190+ pitch starts that Sasaki threw in high school ? It's not seeming like this is going to have a happy ending

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I think a lot of the damage done to pitchers is pre-professional damage that's lurking

J

12:55

Not that it would ever happen but with the Skenes trade talk I was thinking about how the Red Sox might be the only team that matches up with the Pirates in a way that could work for both sides. What do you think about Wilyer, Kristian, Roman and Marcello, for Skenes?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

It's really hard to trade for Skenes for the simple fact that a fair trade for Skenes is going to be an absurd moving of talent

I love Skenes, but I rather have those four that Skenes, even if we assumed for the sake of argument, that their expected value is exactly equal

I'm just not a put all my eggs in one basket type of guy, especially when it's a PITCHER

Isaac Paredes

12:57

I can't imagine what you mean by "the longer a player outperforms/underperforms these measures, the more likely there's a deviation in skill from the model"

laughing

1

Dan Szymborski

12:57

heh

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