JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Who's Fabio?

12:16

Did you see that the state of Indiana declared that tacos are in fact a sandwich. Actually. It was a legal decision to settle a mini mall lease dispute over what constitutes a sandwich.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Only a sandwich in the statuatory sense

SanD

12:17

What goes into projecting a players BABIP? Is it just speed and exit velo?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

line drive rate, spray; opposite field hit rate actually is a better predictor than speed!

Who's Fabio?

12:18

Hey Dan. How is your back treating you?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Much better since disposing of some of the extra weight

Jurf

12:19

Are we all going to forget about Brennen Davis in a few weeks, or is he an excellent prospect again? If it's too early to tell, how many more weeks/months of good play would it take to give a better answer?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I'm sorry to say I'm skeptical

Can't really give X weeks because that depends how good he continues hitting

12:20

If he continues a 170wRC+, it's a lot shorter time than if he continues hitting, say 130 wRC+

12:20

What is the difference between Full Fat ZiPS and ROS ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Use of Statcast and plate discipline data is a big one

and integrated minor league translations

12:21

See, here's the problem:

To do a full ZiPS run takes about a day each for the PC that it runs on, so it can't be updated daily

And even on my main PC, it takes about 16-18 hours, during which I can't really do much with my main PC

12:22

bonus question: if you run Full Fat ZiPS, how much of 3YR ZiPS becomes ~untrustworthy (ie what % of the ZiPS player pool do you think goes through significant changes)?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I don't think I can give a hard and fast rule for a generality

12:22

It's OK, Kevin. We know your chili normally works out.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Hey, I have more hair than him!

Guest

12:22

Whenever you run projections using past data, how do you handle 2020? Do you use the numbers as they are or maybe a projection model of what they could have been over a full season? Was just curious!

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Poorly?

I guess that's not a good answer

12:23

ZiPS considers 2020 as a mix of actual 2020, and the ROS projection calculated at the moment the season ended

and thankfully, it's a really small part of projections now

Hokius

12:24

Does ZiPS think the Royals can keep this up at all?

Dan Szymborski

12:24