JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:27

Nothing good

Andrew Friedman

12:27

I should be all in going after Mason Miller, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Yeah

Joe

12:27

Any reason for some concern about the Orioles? 9-8 in May, the offense is really struggling, and now injuries are starting to crop up.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Not really. Every team is going to have some runs

Chris

12:27

Why did Mike baumann cost so much? And will the mariners have the answer to make him great?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

He writes great headlines

Easter bunny

12:29

I have just accidentally discovered that Mike Baumann's player page is sponsored by FanGraphs with fun facts! Are there other such players? Will you tell me who they are?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I was unaware this was a thing

Idiotic Failson

12:29

Re: Analytics - it seems like hitting analytics has lagged pitching analytics. Maybe the hitting side is going to get better and do a better job of countering the pitching.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It's possible, but pitching has an advantage in that it's not reactive

Cursed laser show

12:30

Does ZIPs look at Roman Anthony first few years and see Andrew Benintendi as possible outcome? Or more like Abreu (Phillies)?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I guess you want a comp? hang on

12:31

I'll get back to this

Guest

12:31

Do you and or ZiiPS think Vientos is a better hitter than Baty (now and long-term); if so, do whatever numbers you trust suggest that his defense at 3B is too terrible to make up for his offense? What are the odds that he could make a Wilmer Flores-esque transition to 2B if 3B is too much?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'm actually a bit worried that they're coming down with Kevin Witt Disease

12:32

Not good enough to hit at 1B, not good enough to field 3B

Shotamania

12:32

Leading question, but what impact do you think his NPB posting signing deadline had on the whole "Shota is underpaid" thing? Caused by the signing deadline full stop, caused by having a signing deadline while other lefty SPs didn't, just a scouting miss from the market?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Probably not a huge one

But so far, it's not looking good

12:33

as in the scouting miss

ZiPS frigging LOVED him

and I'm a little annoyed that a few teams bought some really detailed projections for him and then showed no interest

12:34

As I expressed then, my feeling was that GMs that led the Cubs get him for that little really screwed up

and I called it -- I think, I hope I'm not remembering wrong -- the best signing of the offseason

And naturally, 2024 hasn't done anything to make me feel worse about it

Ron Fairly

12:35

I'd really like to have an Original Tommy's double chili cheeseburger TBH

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I have never been there as I've spent very little time in CA

shoudl've thought of it when I was in Vegas for winter meetings

Joe

12:36

Is a lasagna a casserole?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Yes

Phil

12:37

Red Sox broadcasters are starting to talk up Wilyer Abreu for ROY. Thoughts? I do think he's better than the prospect analysts thought, particularly defensively, but still mostly a platoon guy, surely?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I mean, it's not the craziest thing given that he's like 2nd or 3rd in rookie WAR at least check

12:38

and projectiosn already basically had him as a league-average player before the season

like ZiPS was at 1.7 WAR in 474 projected PA

12:39

and his time not against lefties is basically already "filled in" with replacement level performance

12:39

The Orioles have one of the lowest walk rates in baseball. What are your thoughts on that as to whether it is a strategy or a problem with the young hitters. Adley in particular is walking way less.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

They've done so much damage when they hit things that they're incentivized to be aggressive

12:40

The purpose of plate discipline isn't just to get walks, it's to get your pitch to drive

guys that don't do that go down the Ben Grieve/Jeremy Hermida route

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