JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:50

OH CRAP I FORGOT ROMAN ANTHONY COMPS

12:51

Right now, ZiPS has his top copm as Aaron Hicks

12:52

Tuffy Rhodes

Dwayne Murphy

Reggie Thomas

Larry Whisenton

Shirtless George Brett

12:53

How does zips handle someone like Lugo who goes from reliever to starter? Is it as confused as Iam?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

ZiPS has long-term data on all moves between

Oh, I should note one thing on an earlier question

While ZiPS doesn't factor in the history of being right or wrong on a player's projection *generally* (since that has no predictive value)

12:54

on things like FIP relative to ERA over team and expected stats, it will naturally believe in a player's ability to over or underperform those as time goes on]

So ZiPS would have a different view of Tom Glavine near the end of his career

Young OF

12:57

In early 2017 I remember projections favoring Conforto and Benintendi over Judge because he made so little contact. Was Zips in agreement or did any of them believe in the giant?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

after 2016 season

12:57

No hard and fast rule for 3Yr ZiPS usability; does that mean you haven’t done a comparison to season 1 3YR ZiPS to season 2 3YR ZiPS? (Not trying to troll, genuinely curious, and I know you usually check most of your other statistics on a long term basis)

Dan Szymborski

12:58

It's because you're asking for a very specific answer to a rather non-specific position

Jurf

12:58

Just realized ZIPS never particularly loved Brennen David anyway. Top comp, Carmelo Martinez? Oof.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Carmelo Martinez had a career most players would be very happy with

Shohei

12:59

Also, is a sushi roll a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Guest

12:59

Re:Vientos not hitting well enough for 1B: 14 teams currently have a collective wRC+ at or below 100 from the 1B position. Not an endorsement of Vientos, more of an indictment of the position.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Yeah, but you want to replace those guys

Guest

12:59

We can put this all to rest with a functional linguistic test. A lasagna is not a casserole because no one in history has pointed at a lasagna and said "pass me the casserole". Likewise no one in history has pointed at a hot dog and said "I'd like that sandwich please"

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Nobody has ever said "pass me the alcoholic beverage" to ask to have a beer handed to them, but that doesn't mean that beer isn't an alcoholic beverage

SpicyBoi

1:00

Am I wrong for thinking Christopher Morel can become an elite hitter?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Not necessarily, some of the components of an elite hitter are present

though it's nto the average result

Oh, Rosie

1:01

Do you believe in Randy Arozarena or is he a ghost? Maybe there's a scale, from tooth fairy (low) to evolution (high) for faith that he hits projections?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

He's alive, plus I don't believe in ghosts

Dan'l

1:01

What percentage of your work motivation is your enjoyment of it, vs you need to work to survive, vs you think the product is useful?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

I really enjoy my work

and I'd probably do SOME of it for free if I had another career

1:02

but I like doing it, I like people giving me money to do it, and I hope that people find it useful