JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/24

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12:40

If I were to pick out 50 ZiPS projections (or aspects of a projection) before the year for 5 years and give you my over/under take on them, what percentage would I have to be right on over that stretch to make you think that I know something that ZiPS doesn't?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

You guys like giving me questions that don't have straightforward answers! lol. it would depend on the magnitude and what characteristics correlate the errors

and your argument

chili alignment chart

12:41

where would an unopened can of kidney beans fit on this chart?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I don't want to say, because I'll naturally put beans in evil and tomatoes in chaotic

12:42

LAWFUL GOOD

Dan'l

12:42

What does Zips see from the first two months of the season as a positive future development for the Cards? (slander aside...)

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I mean, ZiPS doesn't think they're *awful*

they're just in real danger of getting mired in the Middle Team Muck

Hokius

12:42

Another Royals question, what does ZiPS make of Salvador Perez? I'm sure he's due for some regression, but how likely is he to finish the season as a well-above average hitter on the whole?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

his zstats are chef's kiss

12:43

skeptical on the BA part, but fully endorses the power

Al Jones

12:43

Is the Orioles offense coming back down to earth a bit? Obviously there's Gunnar and Adley, but I'm not sure what to think of Westburg/Cowser

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Cowser was likely to come back more

bb

12:43

Is someone who voluntarily eats Spam qualified to be a chili gatekeeper?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

depends

12:44

if you're eating it straight from the can, no

but fried spam is really good

Experge

12:44

For players that have consistently outperformed their projections, playing better than their age would normally suggest, does ZiPS adjust to reflect their slower aging curve or does it always project a decline?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I haven't foudn the guys that do that

Issues of *bias* are far easier to wring out than questions of *accuracy*

Deck

12:45

The problem with sabermetrics giving the 'winning strategy' is that winning hasn't budged. The average team still loses half its games. The point of any spectator sport is entertainment. Overall, baseball seems to be falling down on that score.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

But each team is still going to try and pick the best winning strategy

so you have to change the meta

Mike

12:46

This entire chat is slanderous.....

Benjamin, J

12:46

Hi Dan! Which team's success do you think is more sustainable? The Royals or the Guardians?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Guardians

Idiotic Failson

12:47

My controversial and correct opinion - The Beatles are not a good band.

Insert Witty Name Here

12:47

In regards to Travis’ issue with the analytics going too far, my mini solution was to just sit and watch a game on mute. Or go to the ball park and watch a game. We don’t NEED you Dan to enjoy the game.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Nobody needs me for anything ever, really

Even the very nice woman my age who puts up with me doesn't REALLY need me

Confused Stathead

12:48

I know wRC+ isn't your wOBA/league average wOBA. So what is it?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus

seth

12:48

is kenley jansen a one pitch pitcher now?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Yes

But if you have only one good trick, make it a good one

SpicyBoi

12:48

Has Cody Bellinger done enough this year to convince you that last year’s performance is sustainable?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I have no idea what to make of him ever anymroe

12:49

His whole career is batshit random

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