Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/31/17
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Robert
2:15
Has Robbie Ray turned a corner this year?
Dan Szymborski
2:15
ZiPS had Ray 10th in pitcher WAR remaining coming into this season.
2:16
It actually got into Ray last year, it was just hidden by an unsustainable BABIP
Kenley Janses
2:16
If my offense keeps scoring late, I may end up with 20 saves. Can we all finally agree this is a stupid stat?
Dan Szymborski
2:16
If we can't all agree by 2017 after decades of this dumbfiretruck stat, nothing's going to change it.
Joey Votto
2:17
If Zimmerman regresses to normalcy in the near future, I am the best first baseman in baseball?
Dan Szymborski
2:17
I'd take Goldy by a skosh.
Hannah Hochevar
2:18
Just another check-in about Manny Machado, who continues to swing out of his shoes without making much contact. I feel like he's been caught up in the uppercut revolution but that it ain't working for him... Thoughts?
Dan Szymborski
2:18
Would like more data on his angles which I don't have in front of me.
last time I checked the plate discipline data for him (last week) he had actually swung less but also made less contact.
2:19
Which would suggest it's not a crazy theory. And while I get it from watching him, I like hard data.
Nick
2:19
What kind of end of season line would Avi Garcia need to put up for you to believe he is a +3 WAR player next year
Dan Szymborski
2:19
Probably about 4.5
Sorry
2:19
Carson Cistulli is too busy publishing a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast to bother with a queue today.
Dan Szymborski
2:19
He's too busy reading from the Necronomicon.
Or am *I* the antagonist? I can't ever remember.
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
2:19
Would you play me in chess? I'm wondering if you know more about the Ruy Lopez than Ray Ordonez?
Dan Szymborski
2:19
Rey Ordonez
2:21
I used to play quite a bit of Ruy Lopez, though I didn't like exchanging the bishop for the knight
2:22
I tended to to play Ba4 and Qe2
Big Tuna
2:22
The Red Sox infield is in shambles. Is Devers a realistic option?
Dan Szymborski
2:22
It hink he is.
yojiveself
2:23
mazara iffb is 14% , pull rate is slightly down - is he going to reach 20 hr's this season?
Dan Szymborski
2:23
I think he'll come close.
Shaun
2:24
The Phils can't block Hoskins much longer. He looks like a stud so far. Any chance they throw him or Joseph into RF or something?
Dan Szymborski
2:24
I actually wouldn't be shocked if they traded Joseph this winter if he ends the year with interesting stats.
2:25
That neither Joseph or Hoskins have played any of the OF (I'd assume HOskins more likely though I can't imagine him being good out there) even as an experiment makes me think there's not room in the org for both.
rustydude
2:25
No knock on ZiPs and other projection systems, but as useful as they are in the off season, they seem less useful in the ROS projections. They seem to lag behind trends that I can see when looking at day to day player performance. Do you concur? And if so, do you have anything on the boards to build into the model to increase accuracy?
Dan Szymborski
2:26
I've spent time working on the model and the reactiveness is what works best.
People tend to overrate real improvement and real decline.
Steve
2:26
Did Starling Marte's ROS projections (albeit with the missing 80 games) change based on the steroid revelation?
Dan Szymborski
2:26
No. Haven't found any data that would justify an altered projection for steroid users.
2:27
I've found no value to a dummy variable for a drug suspension. It has not improved projections as a group to have that as part of the model.
Tek
2:27
Luis Severino the real deal?
Dan Szymborski
2:27
I sure hope so, I like lookine less dumb than I did last year.
2:28
Though preferably not against the O's? Come on, Luis, I believed in you and didn't declare you should just be moved to the bullpen!
Gregg
2:28
What do you think of Rizzo and Heyward leading the early NL All-Stars vote?
Dan Szymborski
2:28
You're gonna have that with a popular team.
Remember us dodging Omar Infante?
Heyward's hard to argue as the best at everything
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