JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/25/23

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Dan Szymborski

11:59

It is chat time!

Well-Beered Englishman

12:00

What's a weird historical hot take you had that you can fess up to? This morning, I was remembering when I used to think, "How will the Angels make room for Mike Trout when they already have Peter Bourjos?"

Dan Szymborski

12:00

I liked the Soriano-Wilkerson trade. The Wilkerson part.

Blake

12:00

Is Mitch Haniger going to get it going?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

To an extent.

Ray

12:00

When does Shane McClanahan get universally recognized as a top five pitcher in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Maybe I'm in a bubble, but I think people are already at that point.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

12:00

Hi Dan. In the last Power Rankings, the White Sox were estimated to have around a 6% chance at the playoffs.

Does that feel low to me because the division is hot garbage? Or am I being overly optimistic that they are only 5.5 games back?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

The number of teams is as important as the games

And there are three teams in the sameish position as the Sox

Grayson Rodriguez

12:01

How much hope is there for him still? He looks overmatched at the big league level, and seems like he's lost his command since the injury.

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Plenty of hope. When he's cruising, he's been downright solid

12:02

But there always seems to be an inning with thim in which everything blows up

Tim

12:02

How does ZiPS handle projections for switch hitters who stop batting from both sides (hopefully Ozzie)?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

It doesn't, really, until after the event.

Scot

12:03

Any idea whats been up with Kevin Alcántara's BB rate this year? It went from 12% in 21, 11% in 22 to 3.8% this year. I get higher level of comp, but his K% has basically stayed the same. Thats odd, no? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

It's certainly a concern, though I wouldn't go into full panic about that

it's too bad that he's not in AAA since better statcast things available

12:05

Would really need to dig into his swing rate which I can't really get here right now

Guest

12:05

Should the Giants make Casey Schmitt the starting shortstop for the rest of the year? Crawford's defense looks like its fallen off a cliff

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I think he should be starting most days

12:06

I wrote about Schmitt last week

Unfortunate, the site is having hiccups at the moment

Bryce Miller

12:06

How long do you think he can keep getting away with throwing fastballs 70% of the time? He's shown he is capable of utilizing his offspeed pitches more, such as during his third start vs Detroit, but overall he's relied heavily on his fastball.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I do think he has to stretch out eventually.

Kyle

12:06

Are you a believer in Miller (SP)?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Yup

Guest

12:06

Have you done a study of which teams are best at player development? Maybe take the projected 5 year WAR for the teams’ prospects and compare to the actual WAR for that time period?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I haven't

12:08

The site's being worked on as we speak

BABIP

12:08

Were you surprised to see the BABIP on <75mph fly balls be over 0.600? It certainly matches the eyeball test with the frustrating little bloopers ending up in no-man's land

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I wasn't, but I also knew the data beforehand! lol

Those little slow ones just fall onto the ground before an OF can get to it

Derek Lowe

12:08

Do Groundball pitchers break expected stats? We keep hearing guys like Stroman, Elder, Cobb are bound to regress, but the 10 top GB% starters are all significantly outperforming their expected stats outside of Ashcraft. 9/10 is a significant trend and most of those are outperforming xERA and xFIP by over a run!

Dan Szymborski

12:09

ZiPS doesn't have a problem. I haven't tested Statcast's implementation

Bird Crap

12:09

Hey Dan, do you rerun the ZIPS prospect projections or update the list in-season? I'm wondering if Jordan Westburg's performance so far has moved the needle at all for ZIPS. (It hasn't for Eric's list, he's still outside The List). Can you give me a back of the napkin 80th percentile projection for him? I don't really understand why he isn't up yet, 40 man roster be damned.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I don't usually en masse during the season

Bird Crap

12:09

Also...those City Connect uniforms have gotten panned by the interwebs...but I think they are decent, maybe a little better. Your thoughts? Is the lack of a crab a criminal omission?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm kind of meh on them

Don't need a crab

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