JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/26/22

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Bandon Brelt

12:19

What's been up with Michael King recently? He's really fallen off a cliff

Dan Szymborski

12:19

As I say all the time, we get too excited when things are good and too down when things are not!

Roberto Beers

12:19

A Dan, A Chat, Where are his cats? stacsiheraerehWtahCAnaDA

Todd Bonzalez

12:20

Are you at all bothered by how Rutschman and his doo bear a striking resemblance to French-Fry Dan?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Not at all. Thank goodness for the Orioles that his physique doesn't bear a striking resemblance

Romorr

12:21

How great is it to finally see Adley Rutschman? Will this bitter rebuild melt your cold heart when Rodriguez is throwing to Adley for the first time?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It's amazing!

I will be excited

Guest

12:21

Loved the article on Apple tv+ probabilities - I think the thing that initially bothered me the most is the implied precision of using hundredths of a percentage point. As a numbers person, I'd love to have seen a quantified uncertainty using some sort of Bayesian inference... maybe that's not for the mainstream audience though

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Ben does great work! He was a terrific get for us and as I told another staff member, I couldn't have done better than Ben's approach myself

Todd Bonzalez

12:22

Ever consider adding a roller coaster feature to ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I'm not good at predicting roller coasters. If you ever played Rollercoaster Tycoon games, I always made people barf a lot

Pad

12:22

What’s going on with Cronenworth? He just looks overmatched this season. The new ball (all his power was pull side)? Has he been figured out? What?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I think he'll be fine in the end

Romorr

12:23

Mariners and Tigers were both suppose to be coming out of their rebuild, especially with the trades and FA signings. What do you make of their paths going forward? Tigers seem to be in a bit more trouble, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

They've both had snags, but I dont' think anything fundamental has changed about their long term outlook

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:23

With sportswriters, how far into the season do you have to be before you can tell the difference between a hot streak and improved baseline talent? Ben Clemens has been masterful of late -- I think I've forwarded along each of his past three articles.

Guest

12:25

Dan, have you ever attended an 1860s-era vintage base ball game? There are lots of teams in the Cincinnati-Dayton-Columbus area. It's a lot of fun to experience the game of 150+ years ago.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I have not been to one!

Matt VW

12:25

First base has been a production sink hole for the Red Sox. Do you think they call Casas up pre-All Star break or are there things they think he still needs to figure out at AAA?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think Bobby Dalbec is about out of rope. He was already mostly exiled to platoon status a few weeks ago

I think WHAT the red sox do depends on how they feel about the race.

Casas has been fine, but he's not really MURDERING the ball or anything. Remember, AAA did not have a big dropoff in offense

John

12:28

Robbie Ray is getting an insane amount of swinging strikes and besides his LOB% - everything else seems to check out mostly the same as last year - is this just the LOB% regression-monster catching up to him? Or is there something else going on?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

ZiPS for one doe snot know why his K rate has dropped off

12:29

There will be more than that after about the 54-game border as I'l do a zStats post or two

Last week

12:32

Just venting. IMO, both MLB and MLBPA are chicken stew not to have resolved the manipulation of MiLB to be MLB contracts.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

The problem is that owners have a natural structural advantage over players

Owners can wait a year and it would hurt, but they'd still be owners.

12:33

That's not true for all players

Ralph Terry

12:33

Have issues in xStats made it seem like pitchers should be doing better? xFIP is a normalized HR/9, right? Shouldn't HR/9 be even lower now that the ball has been deadened?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

xFIP uses league average HR/FB

So in that way it should be self correcting

But obviously, you always have the same limitations

xFIP is designed to be basic and naive

Elias

12:33

If you're me which current starter(s) do you ship at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Ship as in trade or ship as in writing fan service making them romantic partners?