JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/26/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/26/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

Greinke probably not because I think Greinke wanted specifically to play in KC and he's enough of an iconoclast that I could see him just retiring rather than accept a trade

12:36

If PIneda's healthy I can see him moving

Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle candidates

And Martin Perez

Ben

12:37

With the dramatic decrease in SP innings, will we ever have another 10 WAR season from a pitcher? It hasn't been done since 250 innings of peak Big Unit in 2001. (Or 229 innings of peak Greinke in 2009 by bWAR)

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Under current pitcher usage, I don't believe so.

12:38

Since I still have ZiPS open to Zac Gallen, let me give you ane xample

12:39

ZiPS projects 136 innings from Gallen in 2023.

If I tell ZiPS that he throws 136 shutout innings, his WAR is *still* only 7.9

Now, there will be guys who throw enough innings to theoretically get to 10

but you're already reducing the possibilities of something very rare

12:40

ZiPS is expecting a 2023 that's a mix of 2019-2022, with 2022 weighted most heavily

12:41

To achieve 10 WAR in the projected 2023 ARI environment (replacement starter 5.52 ERA), I get a 0.77 ERA required

Now, some may object to ERA

but ERA works better for WAR in projections than in past performance

since ERA projections are strongly FIP influenced already

Stevie

12:42

Do you see Pasquantino getting the call-up soon? He is killing it in Triple A and Santana is batting @.150

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Most teams I would, but the Royals are weird

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks

12:42

Will you whisper sweet nothings to us about Julio Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Hey, ZiPS projected him as #6 in rest-of-career WAR among htiters coming into the season, so I'm totally incentivized towards wanting him to be awesome!

Brownpants

12:43

Should we be Worried About Winker? I don't know what to make of him. Suddenly solid against LHP and bad against RHP

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think you should be

The humidifiered balls have had weird effects on a lot of offense-first guys

Hunter Jesus

12:44

#freeVinnieP

Enlightening Round

12:44

Do you think the Cardinals will go after Montas now? They need the rotation help ASAP

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I think that would be a good idea, though I don't have any window on their current thinking

Morbo

12:44

Am I late again?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Depends when you got here

Enlightening Round

12:44

Dan, what is really going on when a team like Minnesota doesn't keep a guy like Royce Lewis around? He is a clear upgrade to their roster

Dan Szymborski

12:44

We talked about it last week - Twins have some awkward roster configuration issues

12:45

Which left Lewis to play full time as the more practical option if you're not willing to reduce the pitching staff by one

dabraves

12:45

what kind of contract could Dansby see this offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

a contract to play baseball of one of Major League Baseball's franchises, naturally!

(Sorry, I'm filibustering while I open hitter ZiPS)

12:49

ZiPS suggests 5/88

Eric the Red

12:49

In 1997 Roger Clemens put up 12 WAR and Randy Johnson put up 8 WAR.

Oddball Herrera

12:49

I have a feeling the Twins' "awkward roster configuration issues" will be resolved with another week or so of Jose Miranda hitting < .150

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Yes

Greg

12:49

Will Terrance Mann outlive Ray Kinsella and get the Hellfish treasure now that he has outlasted Shoeless Joe?

Eric the Red

12:50

1997 continued: what the hell was in the water that got Randy Meyers a first place Cy Young vote?

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