Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/3/17
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John
2:28
can senzatella keep this up, or will he be a victim of coors?
Dan Szymborski
2:28
I remain skeptical
Hold the Odor
2:29
Is Thor drop-able in a 10 team redraft league? 3 DL spots and currently have Rodon, Gray, and Haniger on the DL.
Dan Szymborski
2:29
Sadly yes,
Though I'd stall as long as I can
Until you have to make the decision.
It's strongly looking like 3 months at least now.
2:30
They're not revealing everything obviously, but the fact that he's getting a second opinion is a red flag
Greg Bird
2:30
So... it's going to get better for me, right? I really want to believe Steamer, ZIPS, etc... tell me they aren't all wrong.
Dan Szymborski
2:31
ZiPS isn't even all that optimistic.
Bork
2:31
Did you know Mat Latos is not a very good pitcher?
Dan Szymborski
2:31
Cat Latos is a very chill cat though.
Makes me sad, Latos really was a terrific young pitcher.
Ken
2:31
Think this is just a slow start from V-Mart, or is this the new him? What are you seeing RoS?
Dan Szymborski
2:31
Very worried. He's dangled off the cliff before, but this is the worst.
Andrew P
2:31
What's wrong with the Gausman? What's different than last season when he looked good?
Dan Szymborski
2:32
I'm trying to figure that out myself.
It's not just that he's walking guys, he really seems to be missing his intended spots.
2:33
He's simply throwing in these random meatball pitchers and batters are now *waiting* for those.
Pb&Js
2:33
What more does Aaron Hicks have to do to get a full-time gig?
Dan Szymborski
2:33
He had a .644 OPS coming into this season.
Tim
2:34
Who's your favorite athlete with a Z in his name?
Dan Szymborski
2:34
Z-Man Tom Zenk of course!
Pinstripe Wizard
2:34
If one were to use Cistullian as an adjective, what would one be describing?
Dan Szymborski
2:35
A process of putrefaction.
Matt
2:35
Do you consider a pita pocket to be a sandwich, Dan? Because if you do, then explain to me HOW IS A HOTDOG NOT A SANDWICH?!?!?!
Dan Szymborski
2:35
No
Zangief
2:35
Is anyone as maddeningly inconsistent as Matt Moore?
Dan Szymborski
2:35
Samardzija?
P
2:35
Gambler's Fallacy is brought up frequently when it's suggested a player is going to hit a home run because he's "due". I understand how being "due" is falling in to the trap, but given a season's worth of stats are the accumulation of hot streaks and cold streaks it seems that applying the fallacy as a blanket statement removes the human element from the numbers. More to the question, it seems the gambler's fallacy suggests a batter will have an even performance throughout the year while the human element dictates otherwise. How is that accounted for? Or did I just fall flat on my face and describe the issue.
Dan Szymborski
2:36
It makes the assumption that there's a predetermined number of hot and cold streaks and players just use one up and have an extra of the other remaining.
And if this was true, in-season projection models wouldn't perform most accurately by weighting to-date performance fairly heavily.
2:37
If Gambler's Fallacy was an actual thing, if you projected a guy to hit .300 and he's hitting .400, you would now project him to hit *less than* .300 now. Do that and you'll have the worst model out there.
Tek
2:37
Aaron Judge a 6 win player this year?
Dan Szymborski
2:37
Let's not go crazy
rustydude
2:37
I often have a recurring dream that I'm the most mediocre player in the NBA or MLB and that I got there just by having a damn good agent.
Dan Szymborski
2:37
STERLING HITCHCOCK
Andrew P
2:37
On the other hand Ryan Flaherty has had an illustrious career for a minor league player. Perspective!
poo 1
Coop
2:37
Is the ball juiced this year?
Dan Szymborski
2:37
No
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