JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

But this is by design.

12:36

You'll always project someone flipping coins to have a 50% heads projection

even though you KNOW it's going to be off a ton

Let's take the AL East winner, which ZiPS projects WILL have 99 wins, on average

12:38

OK, argue that a team winning 108 games is AS likely as 90

12:39

Projections SHOULD have a smaller range than the actual results, or you've done something horribly wrong

12:40

a player's exact 1st percentile projected BA ought to happen just as often as their exact 50th percentile or 99th percentile BA projection

12:42

Type =rand() into 30 cells in excel. Keep hitting F9 until all 30 numbers are between .450 and .550. Stop at that point. You'll still be hitting F9 at this time next week.

12:43

A way to help curb strike outs, redefine the checked swings. Raise the threshold for what qualifies as a swing IE 'going around'. It would remove some whiffs from the game. Any substantive impact? More trouble than it's worth?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Interesting at least

I think most crazy ideas should be auditioned

Skenesball

12:43

Why didn't MLB insist on Skenes vs. Skubal during yesterday's double header instead of letting them be staggered. Give people the SK Bowl!

Scott

12:43

Dan, thanks for the ZIPS standings update. One question - it seems a bit odd to me that the Dodgers only have a 73% chance of winning the NL west. They are up 6.5 games now and clearly have the best team. At least one sportsbook is giving them -4500 odds. Why is the division not more "in the bag"?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Well, one important thing to remember is that Vegas is trying to maximize their return

The thing is, the future is very uncertain

and remember

Salvador Perez

12:45

Have you been following the conversation between Tom Tango and Bill James on my framing? Do you think we need to adjust how much value we put on framing in catcher defense?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I think things should be questioned. I'm not convinced that it's enough to give Sal Perez a huge boost

But there ought to be no such thing as a set belief

EVERYTHING has a nuance

Air Yordan

12:45

Please provide 1-10 confidence in a rebound for the following players: Riley, Goldschmidt, Machado, Springer

Dan Szymborski

12:46

9, 3, 7, 5

Bighen

12:46

Mets obviously in disarray. Trade Alonso, JdM, Severino? Get back C level prospects Same for maybe Manea and Marte (if including $). What else do they do?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think they just kinda hang around and do ltitle

but we'll see

Guest

12:46

boom, modern era starts in '61. Maddux's 355 wins are still "unbreakable" right?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Under current usage patterns, that is all

Guest

12:46

David Fletcher pitched 5 innings last night as a knuckleballer. That’s all.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I wonder if he bet on his inning count

turquoise

12:46

Robert Suarez has peripherals 2-3 runs higher than his ERA. Sell high in fantasy or ride til the wheels fall off?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Always depends on what selling high looks like

Random

12:47

What team this century has lost the most pre-season projected WAR to injury?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

An interesting question, but not one I know the answer too

and would be tricky to value

tseuG

12:47

Following up on 1-run games, if we looked at past teams' seasonal 1-run outcomes, how strong do you think the correlation between bullpen quality and 1-run game record would be? Would you ignore overall record, or would it be illustrative to compare the outcomes of using/ignoring overall record?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Almost none

I've actually done the work there

12:48