JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/30/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:49

12:50

Same results with just looking at closers or best X relievers

Yeah, the years match weirdly, but I did them independently on Twitter

and somehow didn't get an article out of either

Random Colorado guy

12:51

Thoughts on Jordan Walker? Is there any hope left?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Certainly, but he can't be in the team's Plan As until he's actually hitting Triple-A hitters well

Walker now has 240 Triple-A PA and has a wRC+ of about 85

12:52

that's not a translated wRC+, that's his ACTUAL wRC+ in the International league

Even his last year of wRC+ 116 at Triple-A is HARDLY want you want to see from an offense-only player

there's still a lot of upside, but again, it's speculative

12 to 6

12:53

gavin stone is 5-2 with a 3.15 era/3.50 fip and his fastball is consistently in the mid 90s, which is making his 65+ change look even better. any reason to think this isn't real?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Should actually see his K rate go up. Average contact rate shouldn't lead to K rates thispoor

TomBruno23

12:53

Approximately how many innings of the Regionals do you think you will watch this weekend?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Not a lot probably

Guest

12:53

Is there a way to statistically quantify when a player is too passive? If so, is that the Termarr line?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I don't think there's a hard and fast rule

Kevin

12:54

What, if anything, do you know about what teams are doing or considering using artificial intelligence tools? Any teams known or believed to be at the forefront? Any topics known or imagined to be most ripe for exploration?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I don't actually know; it's not a question I've ever really asked anyone and nobody's brought it up to me

I suspect unless you're talking things like more traditional statistical analysis using neural networks, AI is not really important

Ben

12:55

If tomorrow you were made a GM, what is one thing you'd do that would go against conventional attitudes most?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

Argue on Twitter that it was a really poor idea to make me a GM

12:56

I'd probably invest more in scouting than most quant types

Especially of players in system

12:57

Because even if it's uncertain, the knowledge you have of YOUR players is where you have a built-in advantage over other teams, so you want to leverage that as much as possible

So even if the data are something subjective and messy and volatile, it's also where you can discover things about your players and not have someone else do so

Dmx

12:57

I like the pitch clock. I just don’t want to see it on the broadcasts. It adds no drama to see a countdown in the scoring bug between every pitch.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Yeah, I don't need to see it

J

12:58

I think it's also worth noting that median projection may miss out on 103 win teams but it hits very close on a lot of 70-90 win teams every year. It's just that people latch onto the big misses for outlier teams.

Pat

12:58

Speaking of Chris Sale, how much has his resurgence changed his future outlook? Obviously, health is a big concern, but, he's shown that when healthy, he still has "it". What percentile of future projections gets him into the HOF?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Yes, and I might write about that soon

Bernie

12:58

Has anyone increased their ZIPs wRC+ projection more than William Contreras (113 to 133)? I guess, Joey Ortiz has gone from 82 to 104

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Looks like biggest gaienrs are Fry, Pillar, Profar, Ozuna, Sosa, Ohtani, Pederson, ORTIZ, Sal perez, Wade, Stallings, Willson, WILLIAM

1:02

(Obviously Willson had something very bad happen which may prevent that)

I really think he should be Wiliam Contreras

laughing

1

Because of Willson

1:03

And if you have a Willson and a William, you've damaged the balance of L's in the universe

Mike Trout

1:03

Are the headlines wrong that there are new single season record holders with Negro League stats? Don’t they not meet the minimum requirements for at bats or innings?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

At bats/innings are league based

So yes, someone with a lead in 40 games or something has to be contextualized

but all leaderboards should be

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