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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/7/18
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:00
DAMMIT ITS MAY NOW
Giants Fan
2:00
How bout them Giants?One thing I've noticed going on baseball savant is the xwOBA for almost every hitter suggest they're facing bad luck (even Belt, Posey, Hundley) and if they were to come to the norm they would have arguably best lineup in NL, however the reverse is true with the pitching staff. Could the park and defense be playing a role in this? Or should I still expect their wOBA to move toward the xwOBA over time?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:01
I get similar, though far from the extreme that they'd be the best lineup in the NL.  I have my own method that does take into account park.
2:02
Heck, just by runs created, they're missing half-a-run a game you'd expect.
hscer
2:02
Perez, Goldschmidt, Zimmerman, Bruce, Taylor, Yelich, Desmond, Castillo, Weaver, and Jansen: are they conspiring to ruin my fantasy team?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:02
Naturally, yes.
tb.25
2:02
Yankees or Red Sox in a best-of-7 series?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:02
Yankees by a hair!
Travis Sawchik
2:02
If Nick Markakis makes the all star team, do I have to resign?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:02
BOTH of us?
CamdenWarehouse
2:02
Someone needs to tell Jotcast that the chat starts at 2:00 EDT not EST
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:02
Having Carson in the wrong time zone is one of our few ways to fight back.
Andy
2:02
Rockies currently sitting right in that NLWC race with some sneaky good pitching despite some awful hitting.  Assuming the hitting picks up, you see them making a run for the WC2 spot?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
Yeah, they were always a contender, despite the front office's best efforts to not maximize the team's quality.
They will be better overall, but the team's vanity lineup spots aren't going away.
Jay
2:04
How do all of the moving pieces settle out in NY? Nice problem to have, but when Drury and Bird return, it seems like a logjam in the infield and the outfield. What would be your optimum lineup?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:04
I don't think Drury gets a starting job back.
2:05
I think Walker may not be long for the roster.
They're carrying what, 3 bench spots?  I just don't think Walker has much use at that point.
Webster
2:05
Gleyber or Merrifield RoS?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
Gleyber
THE Average Sports Fan
2:05
Are the Dodgers a good team?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
Yes, but having a poor run.
Webster
2:06
What do you think of Stroman rest of the way?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
I'm fairly worried, he's been getting hit hard.
2:07
At last check, he was way up there in exit velocity.  On the bad side.
Question Asker
2:07
Has anyone every looked at pitches per out (for pitchers) as a statistic to see if it tell us anything? I know Chris Sale tried to reduce his pitches per out a couple years ago in an effort to go deeper into games, but otherwise you don't really hear much about anyone prioritizing it.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:08
I haven't found much in the way of predictive value.  Could be I'm not looking in the right place or looking at the wrong thing.  It's possible a *change* can be relevant, but I just don't have the results yet.  Not sure who else is working on that
Vegan Man!
2:08
What is Tyler Austin's trade value? Can he bring back anything of significance for the Yankees? Thank you!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
Not *quite* as much as one would think.  He had a nice season in the minors last year and a good start this year, but the market for players on that side of the defensive spectrum has been dead and I don't think he's going to fetch a lot without more "proof"
2:10
And for the Yankees, with Greg Bird very uncertain, Austin may simply be more valuable to the Yankees than what they would get in return right now.
Tommy
2:10
The Diamondbacks have in their lineup 5 or 6 of the worst hitters in the majors - both this year and over the last half-decade - and somehow continue to score runs and win games.  SSS, sure, but is the most statistically improbably start in years?  Daniel Descalso hits 2nd or cleanup in like 70% of the games!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:10
It's not like they're scoring that many runs, they're 8th in the NL in a hitters park
2:11
They're winning games because the team's ERA+ is 140.
Chris Sale is at 141 for his career.
So essentially, the average pitcher on Arizona this year has allowed runs like Chris Sale typically does.
2:12
If you have 13 Sales on your roster, you're going to win a lot of games.
But it's going to be hard to maintain that because NOBODY has that many Chris Sales.
13 Chris Sales eats like 100,000 calories a day.
An elephant eats, I believe 75,000
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