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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/7/18
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Vegan Man!
2:13
How much better can the Yankees get? They have 3 starters hitting below .203 (Gardner, Walker, Sanchez), 2 hitting below .240 (Hicks and Stanton), and no Bird, Drury, Warren, and Kahnle... I know Didi has helped to pick up the slack, but it seems like this team has even more room to improve? Thanks!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:13
It's a terrific team.  There's little question about it and the ZiPS over/under now, with the games in the bag is on the verge of 100
Vegan Man!
2:13
Any hope for Ian Kinsler? Awfully slow start... Thanks!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:13
Still hopeful
Al Gone Quinn
2:13
Strasburg has given up 8 HR's this year, to date. How much of this do you believe is bad luck?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:13
Don't go nuts about HRs in a month.  It's a less stable stat for pitchers than the other true outcomes and it's not particularly close.
2:15
If he were getting hit harder, maybe then I'd be a bit concerned.
CamdenWarehouse
2:15
You know what would make baseball more fun? If my favorite team would take advantage of all of the ways you bring new talent into your system.  Like international signings
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:15
Things the Orioles are against:
International amateur signings
farm systems
trade for prospects
spending money
2:16
being aware of advances in baseball thought after about 1973
There are just too many things they're morally against!
SpaceNeedle
2:16
What are your opinions on Edwin's Diaz future effectiveness? He had a great start to the season, but I'm not super convinced it will continue. His slider has looked much more flat this year, and his 98-99 decent movement is obviously tough to face, but not something that other relievers don't have...
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:17
You say that like 98-99 decent movement is a dime a dozen!
Vegan Man!
2:17
Over / Under 28 HR for Soler? Thanks!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:17
Still under
Nick Markakis
2:18
This season to date, I am neither a liquid nor a gas.  What am I?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:18
plasma
andrew
2:18
How do you reconcile large differences between xwoba and woba? For example, Odor .341 (xwoba) to .259 (woba), Heyward .377 to .291, Carpenter .402 to .285. Small sample? Something the model isn't good at picking up?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
I have my own system, so I can't speak to the specifics of value of short-term xwoba in terms of predictability
But the error bars are still very large.
Shawn
2:19
Is what Caleb Smith is doing sustainable?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
I'm not convinced yet.  Yeah, it's hard to spike that many strikeouts and it be total fluke, but he just doesn't seem to miss bats as often as you'd expect with that rate
Matt
2:20
The Yankees will win 140 games this season. Convince me otherwise.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
That's quite aggressive!
Bobby
2:20
Are the giants for real?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
They in fact exist.
2:21
ZiPS had them at 83-79 at the start of the season, so they're ahead of the pace, but it's not like 19-15 is some drastically different start
Mike
2:22
Is Alford’s call up anything more than temporary coverage?  Is Teo locked in as a starter?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:22
They're going to see what happens.  I don't think it's Teoscar that's at risk.
Vegan Man!
2:22
Tatis Jr. is 19 years old and in AA. He's hit 3 HR in his last 5 games and looks like he's starting to adjust to more advanced pitching. Do we have any data on the MLB success of young hitters like him that have advanced quickly through minor league ball? Thanks!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
Generally speaking, guys that advance quickly are better anyway, so it doesn't really add that much value.
You advanced Tatis Jr. quickly because he's awesome, he's not awesome becuase he advances quickly, he's awesome because of his performances that suggest he's awesome.
Does that make sense?
Matt
2:23
If the Hot Dog people were invaded by the Sandwichites, and had the culture of the Sandwichites forced upon them - would then, a hot dog be a sandwich?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
No
kderg
2:23
Is Ian Kinsler nearing the end? It's only been a month, and he isn't striking out much, but he has seemed pretty punchless so far.
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