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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/26

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oaktownblues

12:21

ZiPS was, I thought, surprisingly low on Tyler Soderstrom coming into this year (I think he had 1.1 WAR projection?). Has it come around on him any more in the time since then?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

It wasn't optimistic about his defense, so that's come up a bit

but the offense is nto that far off

oaktownblues

12:22

Nick Kurtz now at nearly 800 PAs with a 168 wRC+ to start his career - do you think that's his true talent level? Or do you think he'll end up more of a 140-150 wRC+ guy?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I think a 150-155 is most likely

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:22

How do you think zips will accommodate for A's players moving from Sacramento to Las Vegas? I would ask about guys that started in Oakland but we know those won't exist by the time the LV ballpark opens. Will it be years before zips can normalize the ballpark differences?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

poorly, I assume!

The first year is going to be a guessing game

dimensions themselves have a very weak game at predicting the factors

ransohs

12:22

are you excited for the world cup?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

No, soccer/association football really isn't my thing at all

No aspersions on those who are really into it, I'm just not

My enjoyment of sports tends to be correlated with how much I liked playing it as a kid

I really loved playing baseball as a kid

12:24

I absolutely HATED playing soccer. I like a fairly high ratio of running to doing stuff

NO OTHER WAY AROUND

In baseball, you're running a lot if something cool is happening that your'e involved in

hamiltonthebabeporter

12:25

What did you think of Machado's comments about the over-reliance on data, specifically for hitters? I know it can be interpreted as a struggling hitter making excuses but I wonder if we've also reached a saturation point for sabermetrics and its relevance to hitters.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think the data clicks with some guys and not with others

12:26

I think he got TOO MUCH criticism. It's not really his job to understand data himself. If the Padres aren't communicating things to him in a way that he can get actionable info, that's on them, not so much him

but if he's just refusing, that would be on him. But I don't know which is which

oaktownblues

12:26

If you're the A's do you send down Lawrence Butler or give him a chance to catch up to his (merely below average instead of terrible) expected stats?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

PROBABLY keep using him, though be more aggressive at not using him in bad matchups. I don't think you upgrade on him simply by sending him down

Steven S

12:27

Say something good about the Cubs.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I really appreciate Ben Brown helping to make my busts/breakouts list better than last year!

so far

Bob Loblaw

12:27

Is this Cubs season over? May and June have not been friendly.

Dan Szymborski

12:28

No, Recency bias is a big thing

12:29

(And yes, I meant playing Lombard in the outfield, they should be testing him out there already)

12:30

I'm not having a brain fart on Lombard. He certainly has the ability to fill in at a corner outfield spot; it's not a rocket science position that you need real experience on

Person

12:30

doesn't Lombard need a power run before they bring him up? I'm thinking (hoping maybe) more OD 2027 (if there is an OD 2027) (which I think there will be) (parentheses)

Dan Szymborski

12:30

not necessarily

Person

12:31

Sirota's Steamer has gone from 82 to 118. since Walker's ZiPS is 89-108 and he ranks ahead of Sirota on your list, I guess ZiPS is more modest than Steamer there

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Also remember these are as of 5/28

soddingjunkmail

12:31

Gun to your head, why do you have a gun to your head? Also, who wins the AL central?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

The gun to the head questions are strange. It's a weird thing to threaten a life over!

I can think of a lot of reasons for people to be murderously angry at me

12:32

And really, you can just ask me questions. I'm pretty accessible and talkative

njwr

12:32

What would the score be of a 9 inning game between the best D3 team and two Shohei Ohtanis? Ohtani is pitching and catching, but zero fielders, so most contact will be a hit. Ohtani gets ghost runners.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I have no idea off the top of my head but I'll let others speculate

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