JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/26

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Person

12:32

hey "A Dan a man a chat" isn't a palindrome

oaktownblues

12:33

Do you believe in the re-emergence of Zack Gelof? Not quite to 2023 levels, but as an above average regular?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'll say broadly averagish

12:34

True story: I once accidentally said zack gelof wrote I Don't Like Mondays

oaktownblues

12:35

Is Jeff Mcneil toast?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

toast? no, but there's SOME Mailliarding going on

Twangs

12:35

Hi Dan- I am befuddled by the closer situation with the CWS. Taylor is perhaps the best closer not named Miller, but his usage is all over. Last week he came in with a 5 run lead to pitch the 6/7th. Days after that he closes. Dominguez has the $20 million contract and would be easier to move with more saves, Taylor getting more saves may mean the WS would pay him more later, or Taylor may start next year. Can you offer any clarity to this murky situation? Thanks!

dubykoff

12:36

Do you think Grant Taylor is now the White Sox closer? Seranthony Dominguez has been appearing in the 7th and 8th inning lately, and Taylor appears to be the better pitcher of the two. Bryan Hudson got the save yesterday, but Taylor had pitched the ninth and tenth innings the day before and was probably unavailable.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I certainly hope he gets more high leverage innings. I think he's pretty clearly their best closer. But I don't want to guess what the White Sox will do because they're still the White Sox

There's a long-term thing with the White Sox in that whether they're bad or good, they never seem quite cognizant of how they got there

12:39

So hey, we're winning with Benintendi, he must be why we're winning

Brendan Geck

12:39

Have you heard of any promising exmaples of how MLB orgs are leveraging LLMs internally? It seems like it’s been a few years now but I haven’t heard many examples of improvements beyond writing code faster

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I haven't heard anything

I generally talk more theoretical things with front offices

rather than the nitty gritty how they make the sausage

12:40

I'm not a reporter, and mostly want to aid my own insight into things rather than report things, but there's always some stuff I just wont' get told

Envy Angel

12:40

Sorry for the questions about projections. I am just getting started with something because they looked fun, and you are an expert, and I thought the chat would be the best place to ask questions.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

It's fun to do projection stuff. You learn a lot just experimenting

soup

12:41

How does zips view Eldridge heading into his early 20s? It seems like he's already massively over performed all expectations at this age

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Ask me when I do the full expectations change in a couple weeks

grandbranyan

12:41

Going back to 2023 Brewers position players are +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns, and helping their pitchers to an ERA -0.41 runs lower than their FIP. Picking up half a run a game on the margins over 550 plus games has to be the residue of some sort of good design, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

The Brewers ARE a really well run franchise generally

if they had the Dodgers payroll, I think they'd be a juggernaut

John Tereniak

12:42

Any comment regarding JAWS vs. BOOG for figuring HOF worthiness? Or just a different way of looking at it...

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I really enjoy the FG article/reddit commentary on it

I've been tinkering with WAA type approaches as well

because I think value and the philosophy of greatness are relatively different

Envy Angel

12:43

It seems like Marcels has a blanket set of weights for three years of stats and a general reliability factor based on playing time. If I wanted to adjust both for, say strikeout rate for batters, which seems to stabilize quickly, would I raise the reliability factor, give more weight to the most recent year of stats, or do a little of both?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Both approaches can be valid! The best way to do it is to experiment yourself

Sometimes you find something that nobody else has or that people are underestimating

Brandon Harrison

12:44

I think you radicalized me yesterday… I am neither a pirates fan nor a huge Cutch fan, but seeing where he ranked at 28 relative to other CF, I think I must now lead the cause for his hall of fame candidacy.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I fear that I'm one of the writers that is closest, I'm probably in the 90th+ percentile for valuing peak relative to career

kingkash7788

12:45

have you found a good 82-0 variant for baseball

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I don't think you can

Baseball has too many volatile outcomes

12:46

Ever watch a Home Run Derby? A LOT of those hits would be outs. And they're TRYING to get those guys to crush things

sammysamsam

12:46

Something is pretty seriously wrong with Gunnar Henderson, right?

Any clue what it may be?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Seriously? not sure

For one, the pierpherals don't support a BABIP TAHT low

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