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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:47

but he IS hitting for less power, less bat speed, so he shoudln't be having as good a year as his career to date

lain

12:47

What does ZIPS say about Alec Burleson rest of season compared to start. In my points league, his BA, HR total and lack of K's is money. Your ZIPS had him as a strong player in my league and it has come to pass. How much regression do you expect in second half?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Some, but he's not CRAZILY outperforming his expectations

and it's not like he wasn't good last year

Person

12:48

re llms, now i'm imagining monfort asking gpt if kris bryant will ever play again

Justin Krupp

12:49

How many more PAs would you/ZIPs like to see from Bryce Eldridge before making adjustments to his outlook?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I don't think you can have such an if/then. It's a spectrum

smoothio

12:49

Which comeback was less likely: Knicks or Giants?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Knicks I'm pretty sure

wasn't there WE in the <1% range?

12:50

now, DIVISION, maybe giants

but playoffs, knicks less likely

as in knicks comeback % vs. giants playoff %

Cube Jockey

12:50

How are park factors adjusted for one off series like the A's in Vegas where there is clearly a difference in how the stadium plays but also limited data?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I generally use neutral for those

12:51

The nice thing about neutral is that everyone understands how to take those stats

"OK, Szym projected a neutral park, but they're a hitters park in the end, so I can mentally adjust the raw stats up for hitters and down for pitchers"

12:52

Using a neutral park when you don't know is better for providing information to the usersii, since there's no ambiguity over what you mean

In a way, projecting something in an opaque way that slightly improves projections is arguably WORSE than slightly worse performing projections that have clearer meaning

InsertWittyNameHere

12:52

How do I get my cat to stop walking on my head when I'm just starting to drift off to dreamland?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

In my experience, you don't

mmddyyyy

12:53

What do writers do in a lockout?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

If I remember my 2021-2022 offseason again, mutter "OH FUCK, THE THING I COVER DOESN'T EXIST AT THE MOMENT...AGAIN!" a lot

12:54

I've been hoarding ideas for if we have a prolonged work stoppage this time

more ZiPS Time Warp

and I'm thinking of doing a series on interesting players who seem largely forgotten for some reason or another.

while I was musing on Toby Harrah on social media

12:55

I called this series in the heat of the moment as FanGraphs Member Berries, but the reference is probably too obscure

mmddyyyy

12:56

Does the union have any say in expansion?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

PLEASE NOT THAT I AM NOT A LABOR LAWYER, AND IF YOU WANT ONE YOU SHOULD GO BUG EUGENE FREEDMAN OR SOMEONE

12:57

I suspect they do, simply because it was including in the CBA that the owners had the right during the agreement to add up to two teams

and the EFFECT of expansions can always be negotiated over, to the extent that they affect workplace conditions

mmddyyyy

12:58

How would you recommend taking caffeine?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

You should not take health advice from me!

mmddyyyy

12:58

Are your work dreams about baseball or writing or ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

actual WORK dreams involve writing about baseball

sometimes i wake up really bummed

because I have a recurring dream genre that is "Me having a mundane, realistic dream that involves me doing my work the next day"

12:59

and I will wake up feeling like I already wrote my piece and then realize that I still ahve to write it

though sometimes dreams will help in that way, because in my dreams, I'll go over many of the actual arguments that I use

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