JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/25

Return to

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/25

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I'm not sure how you would make non-preposterous rules that force you to remove a pitcher

Kiké has a 2.08 ERA lol

12:23

I don't mind position players pitching

I think if anything, the best solution would be a long-term cultural change towards teams resigning a game

rather than forfeit, which has a huge negative connotation

Like in chess, they don't finish off the lost positions

12:24

But that comes with a real cost in baseball, in concessions, pissing off fans, etc.

In other words, I'm not sure the benefit of upsetting the status quo is worth the costs of doing so

Altamira

12:24

Does any Baltimore impending free agent net a 2026 contributor in trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think they'll trade O'Hearn

Guest

12:24

The Orioles have looked more alive lately, but it's basically because of their pitching putting up a 2.97 ERA over the last 17 games, while the position players have been average. I'm thinking this is actually more concerning than their early pitching struggles, because if their hitters are more average than all-star then things don't look good for future years. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

It's certainly a concern that the offense was only OK. Honestly, I think the math is just too poor for the Orioles

They have to go absolutely INSANE, and even if the offense bounces back, I dont' think the pitching can do that

peter

12:26

Does Homer Bailey get things back on track this year and take a leap forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Wait, did something very weird happens? Did the White Sox sign him for a comeback or something?

12:27

I don't see anything, so confusion is reigning

DJ Tofu

12:28

Compare three fastball pitches, one thrown at 95 mph and the other two at 92 mph and 98 mph. Everything else are identical, with league average everything (H/VAA, arm angle, etc.).
- What are the differences between the time it would take to arrive at the plate? (not sure how to account for spin and aerodynamics)
- For an average hitter, if he swings the bat so that the ball would leave the bat straight away at 100mph EV and 20 degree launch angle for the 95 mph one, where would the bat meet the other two pitches, and what would be the results (EV, LA, and horizontal exit angle)?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I would suggest submitting this for a mailbag!

Because there's no way I can answer this in 45 seconds

You need someone a great deal more intelligent than me

Roberto Beers

12:28

A man, a Dan, a chat, are the giants going to win ninety games, emagyteninniwotgniogstnaigehteratahcanadanama

drplantwrench

12:28

angels are tied for 2nd place in the AL West,1 game under .500, 2.5 games out of WC3, missing two big bullpen pieces and two 3Bs. this year's a success *so far* right? do they have any chance to sneak into the playoffs with the AL West being a mess?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I guess there's a chance, but this is a phenomenally underwhelming team

Houzer

12:29

Should the Tigers offer Skubal a record setting extension now .. and if he rejects it, trade him in the offseason? And would the Orioles consider Skubal for Adley? Or would the Dodgers do Rushing for him?

peanut-gallery

2

Dan Szymborski

12:29

They should probably do the first thing. The second is...complicated and I think it depends what the roster looks like.

12:30

I would absolutely jump on a Skubal/Adley trade if I'm the Orioles

Right now, one has to consider 2.5 years of Adley is probably nto as valuable as 1.5 years of Skubal

Now, the problem is I'm not sure why the Tigers would do this.

12:31

They gotten more WAR from their catchers this year than the Orioles. And they did LAST YEAR too

Houzer

12:31

What does a package of Efflin and Bautista cost the Tigers in a trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

A back end top 100 and a few dudes

Nathan

12:31

Are you training for your booms/busts victory lap?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

No, because this exercise will undoubtedly have many failures as well, by its very nature

And I really do try to avoid hubris

12:33

Like, I want people to know my work has value, but I always try to blend in the failures with the successes

Oaktown Blues

12:33

I think I might've found a small ZiPS glitch. In ZiPS Update, 34 year old backup catcher Austin Wynns is projected for a 123 wRC+. He's had some tiny sample success in 2024 and 2025, but not enough to explain the projection, I think. Am I wrong?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

That seems weird.

oh, right, the UPDATE

12:34

ZiPS only projects him as a 93 wRC+ guy going forward

but with ZiPS at only 107 more PA and the DC at a mere 69, you can blend almost anything with 189 in 48 PA and get a big number

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Dan Szymborski hosts a chat